Stocks: Consolidation of Losses in a Downtrend

Highlights based on trading on Wednesday, June 13, 2012:

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA, turning systematically neutral.

Materials Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA, turning systematically bearish again.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below its lows of the previous 4 months.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above its highs of the previous 2 years, reconfirming its preexisting major bullish trend. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 months, reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 months, reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend.

The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,314.88) fell 9.30 points or 0.70% on Wednesday, surrendering most of its gain from Tuesday.

NYSE volume fell 1%, suggesting continuing declining demand for stocks. Volume patterns generally have been bearish for months, with a tendency toward lower volume on rallies and higher volume on declines, indicating the dominance of selling pressure over buying pressure. NYSE Cumulative Up-Down Volume still shows a bearish divergence: it remains below its 200-day SMA, while the S&P 500 price index remains above its 200-day SMA.

Short term, stocks have turned choppy and hesitant over the past 5 trading sessions, with the S&P 500 confined within a 30 point range, 1306 to 1336, based on intraday extremes. The bulls might argue that selling pressure has dissipated. The bears might call the recent choppy price action “consolidation of losses in a downtrend”.

The larger stock market trend still appears more bearish than bullish since the SPX peak at 1,422.38 on 4/2/12. The path of least resistance appears to be down.

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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.

But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).

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NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 6/13/12. The Ratio remains systematically neutral: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, but still with the 50-day above the 200-day SMA. Looks like a significant downside correction, at least.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above its highs of the previous 2 years on 6/13/12, reconfirming its preexisting major bullish trend. OEX/SPX remains systematically bullish above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 8/24/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. On the other side of the coin, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 months on 6/13/12, reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Systematically, IWM/SPY returned to bearish status again on 4/20/12 when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, IWM/SPY has been relatively weak for more than a year, since 4/5/11.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 months on 6/13/12, reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. MDY/SPY turned systematically bearish on 6/6/12, when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. MDY/SPY remains below its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1389.07, Fibonacci 78.6% of April-June 2012 range
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1362.93, Fibonacci 61.8% of April-June 2012 range
1351.26, 50-day SMA
1344.56, Fibonacci 50% of April-June 2012 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1326.19, Fibonacci 38.2% of April-June 2012 range

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1303.47, Fibonacci 23.6% of April-June 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011-12 range
1,290.58, 200-day SMA
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011-12 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/13/12, turning systematically neutral. GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA remains below its 200-day SMA. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 159.20, 162.18, 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
2.17% , JNJ , JOHNSON&JOHNSON
0.54% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
2.55% , DELL , DELL
0.40% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
1.26% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
2.15% , SVU , SUPERVALU
0.95% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
4.14% , LNCR , Lincare Holdings Inc
1.89% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
0.26% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
1.57% , JPM , J P MORGAN CHASE
0.53% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
2.13% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
0.64% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
0.97% , BCR , C R BARD
0.52% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
0.62% , CIEN.O , CIENA
0.36% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
0.87% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
0.36% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
0.15% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
0.28% , CLX , CLOROX
0.44% , BMC.O , BMC SOFTWARE
0.30% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
0.41% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.97% , RAI , Reynolds American
0.15% , WAT , WATERS
0.53% , MCD , MCDONALDS
0.37% , HNZ , HJ HEINZ
0.27% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
0.72% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
0.23% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.40% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.36% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-0.75% , ISI , LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
-1.89% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
-5.00% , NKE , NIKE STK B
-1.07% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
-1.54% , WFM.O , Whole Foods Market Inc
-1.05% , JKH , MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
-3.01% , AET , AETNA
-0.81% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
-3.41% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
-4.17% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
-3.72% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
-0.39% , XLG , LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
-8.05% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-0.61% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
-4.42% , BC , BRUNSWICK
-3.23% , CBS , CBS CORP.
-4.42% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
-3.60% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-4.17% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
-2.80% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
-0.50% , PWV , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-3.59% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-3.50% , PH , PARKER HANNIFIN
-1.20% , CINF , CINCINNATI FIN
-0.96% , IWS , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.12% , JKG , MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
-0.91% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-2.43% , HD , HOME DEPOT
-4.58% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
-3.19% , BBY , BEST BUY
-2.32% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
-2.06% , WPI , WATSON PHARM
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
0.99% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.73% Spain Index, EWP
0.53% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.53% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.45% China 25 iS, FXI
0.45% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.42% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.41% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.40% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.36% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.26% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.23% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.22% South Africa Index, EZA
0.10% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.06% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.03% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.00% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.06% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.09% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.11% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.13% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.22% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.22% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.26% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.29% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.31% Canada Index, EWC
-0.32% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.36% Austria Index, EWO
-0.36% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.37% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.37% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.37% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.39% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.40% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.41% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.42% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.42% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.43% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.46% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.46% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.47% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.48% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.49% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.50% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.50% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.51% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.51% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.53% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.54% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.55% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.55% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.55% Global 100, IOO
-0.55% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.56% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.57% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.60% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.61% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.62% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.62% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.63% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.63% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.63% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.63% Dividend International, PID
-0.64% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.64% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.64% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.64% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.65% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.67% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.67% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.67% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.68% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.68% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.68% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.69% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.72% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.72% Germany Index, EWG
-0.72% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.74% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.74% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.74% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.76% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.77% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.78% India PS, PIN
-0.79% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.80% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.81% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.82% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.83% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.83% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.86% Water Resources, PHO
-0.87% Italy Index, EWI
-0.87% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.89% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.90% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.91% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.93% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.93% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.94% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.94% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.96% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.96% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.97% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.00% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.00% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.00% France Index, EWQ
-1.00% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.00% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.01% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.03% European VIPERs, VGK
-1.04% MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.06% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.09% Australia Index, EWA
-1.10% Energy Global, IXC
-1.11% Networking, IGN
-1.12% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.12% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.15% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-1.17% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.17% Russia MV, RSX
-1.20% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.23% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-1.24% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.25% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.26% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.27% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.27% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.28% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.28% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.29% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.33% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.34% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.36% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.39% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.42% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.46% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.53% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.54% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-2.17% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB