Monday, November 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are lower U.S. stock index futures prices, lower crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar.

* JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

My bias is that crude oil futures prices will bottom out around or just below the $50.00-a-barrel level and then stage at least a modest recovery. This notions also suggests that several other major commodity futures markets are also close to price bottoms.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading today. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the indexes.

December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 838.50 and then at the contract low of 817.50. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 874.00 and then at 890.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 894.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:————- 879.85
1st Support:——– 842.20
2nd Support:——– 822.85
1st Resistance:—– 899.20
2nd Resistance:—– 936.85

December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,125.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at the contract low of 1,108.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,169.75 and then at 1,192.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,230.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:

Pivot:———— 1,183.25
1st Support:—— 1,127.25
2nd Support:—— 1,099.00
1st Resistance:— 1,211.50
2nd Resistance:— 1,267.50

December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,200 and then more stops just below support at 8,100. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,400 and then just above resistance at 8,500. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,558

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:

Pivot:———— 8,546
1st Support:—— 8,187
2nd Support:—— 8,003
1st Resistance:— 8,730
2nd Resistance:— 9,089

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are firmer early today. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage.

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 118 16/32 and then at the overnight low of 118 9/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 119 4/32 and then at 119 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 5/32

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:

Pivot:———– 118 2/32
1st Support:—– 116 31/32 2nd Support:—– 115 14/32
1st Resistance:– 119 19/32
2nd Resistance:– 120 22/32

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 117.16.5 and then at 118.02.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 117.00.0 and then at 116.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.11.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:

Pivot:———– 116 27/32
1st Support:—– 116 5/32 2nd Support:—– 115 14/32
1st Resistance:– 117 18/32
2nd Resistance:– 118 8/32

CURRENCIES

The December U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early trading today, on profit-taking pressure after setting a fresh contract high last week. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 88.00 and then at the overnight high of 88.21. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 87.10 and then at 86.55. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 86.71. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

The December Euro is lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.2496 and then just below support at 1.2400. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2688 and then at 1.2750. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2694. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

GOLD

Gold is near steady in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $747.50 and then at $750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $736.10 and then at $730.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $734.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today. Bears are still in near-term technical control. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $58.00 and then just above resistance at $59.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $54.67 and then more sell stops just below support at $52.50. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $58.91. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Prices were steady to weaker in overnight trading. The key “outside markets” are neutral early today–crude oil prices are weaker and the U.S. dollar is weaker. U.S. stock indexes are also weaker. Grain bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the grains, as the path of least resistance for the grains remains sideways at best.