Wednesday, October 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are solidly lower U.S. stock index futures prices, solidly lower crude oil prices and a sharply higher U.S. dollar.
* JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Overnight price action in the markets suggests the anxiety level among traders has increased again–after a few days of slightly less market uncertainty. Poor corporate earnings reports are starting to come in. Today traders are apparently focusing on the fact that the major world economies are sickly and that there is no quick-cure tonic for the economic ills. Crude oil continues to be a barometer of the world’s economic health–and prices dipped below $70.00 a barrel overnight.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are lower in early morning trading as the bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 915.00 and then at 900.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 969.10 and then at Tuesday’s high of 992.20. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 953.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:————- 967.70
1st Support:——– 943.20
2nd Support:——– 927.00
1st Resistance:—– 983.85
2nd Resistance:— 1,008.40
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,250.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,225.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,300.00 and then at the overnight high of 1,321.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,308.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,311.10
1st Support:—— 1,261.40
2nd Support:—— 1,230.35
1st Resistance:— 1,342.20
2nd Resistance:— 1,391.85
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,750 and then more stops just below support at 8,700. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,900 and then just above resistance at 9,000. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,879
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 9,094
1st Support:—— 8,929
2nd Support:—— 8,822
1st Resistance:— 9,201
2nd Resistance:— 9,366
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer early today. Bulls are regaining fresh upside near-term technical momentum.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 115 even and then at the overnight low of 114 25/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 115 23/32 and then at 116 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 8/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 114 25/32
1st Support:—– 113 30/32
2nd Support:—– 112 23/32
1st Resistance:– 116 even
2nd Resistance:– 116 27/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 114.25.5 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 114.06.0 and then at 114.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.17.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:———– 114 even
1st Support:—– 113 14/32
2nd Support:—– 112 16/32
1st Resistance:– 114 30/32
2nd Resistance:– 115 16/32
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is sharply higher in early trading today and hit another fresh contract high and two-year high overnight. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at overnight contract high of 86.38 and then at 87.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 85.50 and then at 85.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 84.76. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 8.0
The December Euro is sharply lower in early electronic trading and hit another fresh contract low overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight contract low of 1.2725 and then just below support at 1.2700. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.2900 and then at 1.3000. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3019. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
GOLD
Gold is lower in early dealings today and hit a fresh five-week low overnight. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $766.40 and then at $775.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $748.00 and then at the September low of $739.80. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $777.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are solidly lower early today and hit a fresh 13-month low overnight. In November crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $70.00 and then just above resistance at 71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $68.90 and then more sell stops just below support at $68.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $71.73. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
GRAINS
Prices were sharply lower in overnight trading, amid very bearish “outside markets”–a sharply stronger U.S. dollar and sharply lower crude oil prices. With more fear back in the marketplace today, grains will likely feel strong selling pressure amid margin-call selling and general long liquidation.
