Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below the lows of the previous 20 trading days, confirming a minor downtrend within a larger downtrend.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below 28-month lows.
The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,209.11) rose 20.43 points or 1.72% on Thursday, September 15, 2011. SPX remains stuck in its 5-week trading range between 1101.54 and 1230.71.
NYSE volume fell 10%, denying confirmation of Thursday’s price advance.
Longer-term, SPX fell below 11-month lows on 8/9/11 and remains bearishly below falling 20-, 50-, and 200-day SMAs.
Minor upside reversals lure short-term traders into trying to trade a bounce. Minor price corrections against the trend are normal and expected, of course. But playing minor counter trend bounces is risky. The mood can switch from “risk on” to “risk off” overnight, leaving the too-clever trader suddenly holding the bag, as we have seen repeatedly in recent weeks.
We keep in mind that the dominant trend for the stock market remains persistently bearish. That is the bias. In a bear market, surprises come to the downside.
Typically, there is no safe place to hide in a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market. Even those stocks that have held up relatively well through most of the Bear Market eventually succumb to the relentless tide of selling.
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Includes Top Ten ETFs and Major Trend Relative Strength Rankings.
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Stock Market Indicators
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above previous 10-year highs on 9/14/11. This means a long NASDAQ Composite and short S&P 500 hedge has been a winning trade. NASDAQ absolute price remains below 50- and 200-day SMAs.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF /SPY) fell below 29-month lows on 9/15/11. This basket of the stocks of Brazil, Russia, India and China is in a relatively bearish major trend.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below 28-month lows on 9/15/11, confirming its bearish major trend. Absolute price has been weak since 5/2/11, broke down below 13-month lows on 8/8/11 , and remains bearishly below falling 50- and 200-day SMAs.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below 28- month lows on 9/13/11, confirming its bearish major trend. Absolute price broke down below 12-month lows on 9/9/11.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below the lows of the previous 6 weeks on 9/14/11, confirming a minor downtrend. Longer term, OEX/SPX fell below 28-year lows on 5/26/11, confirming a bearish major trend.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains bearish for the major trend. IWM/SPY fell below 11-month lows on 8/22/11, remains below its 50- and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price has been weak since 5/2/11, broke down below 13-month lows on 8/8/11, and remains below falling 50- and 200-day SMAs.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below 11-month lows on 8/8/11, confirming a bearish major trend. Both the MDY/SPY Ratio and the MDY price remain below 50- and 200-day SMAs, and the 50 is below the 200.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 35.5% Bulls versus 40.9% Bears as of 9/14/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear Ratio was 0.87, down from 1.03, the previous week. The Bull/Bear Ratio is now the lowest since August, 2010, more than 1 standard deviation below the 20-year average. The 20-year median is 1.56 and the mean is 1.64.
VIX Fear Index remains stuck in its 5-week, relatively high level trading range, from a low of 30.16 to a high of 48.00. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed below their closing price lows of June, 2011.
The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,209.11) rose 20.43 points or 1.72% on Thursday, September 15, 2011. SPX remains stuck in its 5-week trading range of 1101.54 and 1230.71.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1258.07, low of 6/16/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1234.56, low of 8/3/11
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1230.71, high of 8/31/11
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1136.07, low of 9/12/2010
1101.54, low of 8/9/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price fell below the lows of the previous 4 days on 9/15/11, suggesting a minor price pullback. TLT rose above the highs of the previous 2 years on 9/6/11, again confirming a major uptrend. Support 111.31, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 114.93, 116.92, 120.45, and 123.15.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price fell below the lows of the previous 8 days on 9/15/11, suggesting a minor price pullback. IEF rose above all-time highs on 9/9/11, confirming a preexisting major uptrend. Investors have been anticipating a Fed “Operation Twist” to be announced after the Fed meeting on 9/22/11; the central bank would attempt to lower longer-term interest rates, in order to stimulate the economy, by selling short-term debt instruments on its balance sheet and using the proceeds to buy 7-10 year Treasuries.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) remains bearish. Short term, JNK/LQD fell below 4-week lows on 9/9/11. Long term, JNK/LQD fell below 2-year lows on 8/10/11.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below 11-month lows on 9/14/11. TIP/IEF has been weak since peaking on 4/8/11 and remains below 3 key SMAs: 20, 50, and 200 days. This means fixed-income investors have been choosing the unprotected 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF) over the inflation-protected TIPs. Fixed-income investors are not worried about inflation.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below the lows of the previous 4 days on 9/15/11, confirming a price pullback. UUP is back down into the neutral zone, between 50- and 200-day SMAs. Support 21.24 ,21.24, and 20.84. Resistance 21.98, 22.21, and 22.63.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below the lows of the previous 20 trading days on 9/15/11, confirming a minor downtrend within a larger downtrend. On 8/9/11, DBA traded below 8-month lows, confirming a long-term downtrend.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price rose above the highs of the previous 5 weeks on 9/13/11, suggesting a minor uptrend. But USO fell below the lows of the previous 2 years on 8/9/11, confirming a major downtrend. Support 32.60, 31.45, 30.31, 26.28, 22.74. Resistance 35.08, 35.14, 39.25, 40.74, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below the lows of the previous 12 trading days on 9/15/11, suggesting a minor Ripple downtrend, or possibly a Secondary Reaction, multi-week downtrend. Gold rose above all-time highs on 9/6/11. Although minor price consolidations and corrections are to be expected in any trend, the dominant trend remains persistently bullish. In a world of too much debt, weak currencies, and self-serving politicians running amok, investors around the globe seek the safety of gold as the only forever-true money. Support: 174.45, 165.88, 159.68, 156.11, 154.10, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/ Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its falling 50-day SMA on 9/12/11 and remains below its falling 200-day SMA. GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, confirming a bearish major trend for the long term. Absolute price of GDX is bullish, just not as bullish as GLD; investors prefer Gold over Gold Miners.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below the lows of the previous 13 trading days on 9/15/11, suggesting a minor Ripple downtrend, or possibly a Secondary Reaction, multi-week downtrend. Silver also fell below its 50-day SMA, thereby turning neutral. SLV peaked on 4/28/11 at 48.35 and has not been able to regain strong upside momentum. Support 38.65, 38.05, 36.04, 35.29, 34.02, and 31.97. Resistance: 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) has been mostly weak since peaking on 4/28/11. This means investors prefer Gold over Silver.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJC ) remains bearish. JJC fell below the lows of the previous 10-months on 9/14/11. Weakness in Copper suggests doubts about the economic outlook, while strength in Copper suggests confidence. Support 49.00, 46.35, and 46.12. Resistance: 54.10, 54.94, 56.64, 57.48, 59.06, 60.04, and 61.69.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.27% , UTH , Utilities H, UTH
1.30% , KLD , LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
1.50% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
1.74% , PRF , Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
1.28% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
1.72% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
1.28% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
3.97% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
1.52% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
2.44% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
1.83% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
4.55% , GNTX , Gentex Corporation
1.54% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
0.88% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
1.64% , XLG , LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
2.62% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
1.78% , IWB , LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
1.51% , IWZ , Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
2.12% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
5.32% , BIG , BIG LOTS
1.35% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.59% , VIG , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
1.09% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
7.17% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
4.32% , SEE , SEALED AIR
6.43% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
1.77% , EL , Estee Lauder
1.50% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
4.03% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
5.76% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
1.81% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
6.40% , LM , LEGG MASON
2.66% , PEP , PEPSICO
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-4.49% , AN , AUTONATION
-3.01% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
-1.52% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
-2.09% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-1.51% , ABC , AMERISOURCEBERGN
-1.45% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-1.73% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-2.46% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
-0.83% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
-1.22% , MHS , MEDCO HEALTH
-1.64% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-0.86% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-2.05% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.25% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.61% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
-0.44% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
-1.59% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.48% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
-0.80% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
-0.14% , COF , CAPITAL ONE FNCL
-0.35% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
-1.30% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-0.15% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.49% , HANS , Hansen Natural, HANS
-0.66% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
-0.24% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
-0.97% , CHD , Church & Dwight
-0.16% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
-0.07% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
-0.09% , PKI , PERKINELMER
-0.15% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
-0.08% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
-0.50% , FO , FORTUNE BRANDS
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
5.22% Sweden Index, EWD
3.97% Italy Index, EWI
3.93% Spain Index, EWP
3.78% Germany Index, EWG
3.73% France Index, EWQ
3.68% EMU Europe Index, EZU
3.60% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
2.83% Austria Index, EWO
2.81% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
2.60% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
2.58% European VIPERs, VGK
2.54% Financial SPDR, XLF
2.36% Financial Services DJ, IYG
2.22% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
2.20% Financial DJ US, IYF
2.17% EAFE Index, EFA
2.11% Energy Global, IXC
2.09% Financials VIPERs, VFH
2.05% Global 100, IOO
2.03% Industrial SPDR, XLI
2.01% Canada Index, EWC
1.99% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.97% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.96% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
1.95% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
1.94% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
1.94% Taiwan Index, EWT
1.94% Belgium Index, EWK
1.86% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.85% Energy DJ, IYE
1.84% United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.81% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.81% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.81% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
1.81% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
1.78% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
1.77% Australia Index, EWA
1.75% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.74% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.74% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.74% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.74% Value VIPERs, VTV
1.74% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
1.73% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.71% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.71% Materials SPDR, XLB
1.68% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.68% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.67% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.66% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.66% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.65% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.65% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.65% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.65% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.63% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
1.62% Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.61% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.61% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
1.60% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.60% Technology SPDR, XLK
1.59% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
1.58% Technology DJ US, IYW
1.57% Mexico Index, EWW
1.56% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.53% REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.53% Latin Am 40, ILF
1.50% MidCap Russell, IWR
1.50% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.48% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.48% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.48% India PS, PIN
1.47% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.45% Emerging Markets, EEM
1.41% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.41% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
1.41% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
1.40% Singapore Index, EWS
1.40% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.36% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.36% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
1.35% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.34% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.34% Switzerland Index, EWL
1.33% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.33% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
1.32% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
1.32% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.32% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.31% South Africa Index, EZA
1.30% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.29% South Korea Index, EWY
1.28% Water Resources, PHO
1.28% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.25% Utilities SPDR, XLU
1.25% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.25% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.20% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
1.18% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
1.16% Japan Index, EWJ
1.14% Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.09% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
1.08% China 25 iS, FXI
1.03% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.01% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.00% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.98% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.92% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.91% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.91% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.83% Dividend International, PID
0.83% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.80% Russia MV, RSX
0.76% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.67% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.64% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.63% Networking, IGN
0.53% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.49% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.48% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.44% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.42% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.41% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.39% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.35% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.27% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.16% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.03% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.15% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.20% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.29% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.35% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.56% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.75% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.86% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-0.87% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.25% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.53% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.59% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-2.05% Silver Trust iS, SLV
