Thursday, November 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are lower U.S. stock index futures prices and lower crude oil prices.
* JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. stock index bulls are fading after the recent solid push higher from contract lows. What I suspect is that a range-trading environment is developing that could last for a while. Those trading ranges are marked by the recent contract lows and by the mid-October reaction highs. Traders should remember that well-defined trading ranges make for good “swing trading” opportunities. I wrote a feature on swing trading a while back. If you’d like to read it, just send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I’ll attach it and email it back to you.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are lower in early morning trading today. Bulls have faded and have lost their upside near-term technical momentum.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 936.00 and then at 925.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 957.80 and then at 975.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 947.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:————- 971.20
1st Support:——– 934.35
2nd Support:——– 910.70
1st Resistance:—– 994.85
2nd Resistance:— 1,031.70
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,262.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,250.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,304.00 and then at 1,330.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,275.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,330.20
1st Support:—— 1,273.10
2nd Support:—— 1,239.95
1st Resistance:— 1,363.35
2nd Resistance:— 1,420.40
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday’s low of 9,090 and then more stops just below support at 9,000. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 9,200 and then just above resistance at 9,300. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,908
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 9,265
1st Support:—— 9,000
2nd Support:—— 8,825
1st Resistance:— 9,440
2nd Resistance:— 9,705
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are firmer early today. This week’s big gains have given the bulls fresh upside near-term technical momentum.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 116 13/32 and then at 116 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 117 6/32 and then at Wednesday’s high of 117 12/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 3/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 116 15/32
1st Support:—– 115 18/32 2nd Support:—– 114 3/32
1st Resistance:– 117 30/32
2nd Resistance:– 118 27/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 115.31.0 and then at 116.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 115.10.0 and then at 115.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.04.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:———– 115 11/32
1st Support:—– 114 30/32 2nd Support:—– 114 10/32
1st Resistance:– 115 31/32
2nd Resistance:– 116 12/32
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today. No serious chart damage has occurred recently. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 86.14 and then at 86.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 85.41 and then at 85.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 85.59. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5
The December Euro is lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.2700 and then just below support at 1.2650. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2936 and then at 1.3000. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2818. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5
GOLD
Gold is near steady in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $749.50 and then at $760.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $735.00 and then at $725.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $730.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower early today. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $65.00 and then just above resistance at $66.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $63.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $62.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $65.26. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed but mostly lower in overnight trading. The key “outside markets” are in a bearish posture today, as crude oil prices are lower and the U.S. dollar is firmer. Bulls have faded with the big losses Wednesday. Now, it’s very possible prices could retest the October lows in the near term.
