U.S. stock market price indexes opened higher again and rose further to challenge their highs of the month after the Fed’s “Dovish” monetary policy statement at 2:00 p.m. ET. The stock market appeared to encounter resistance around recent highs, however, and surrendered all gains in the final hour to close below the open and about unchanged from the previous day’s close. Price indexes closed mixed, with the S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,685.73) down only 0.01%.
Popular price momentum oscillators based on SPX, such as RSI(14) and MACD(12,26,9), turned downward on Wednesday 7/24/13 and remain bearishly divergent.
NYSE total volume rose 18% to a level 14% above its 200-day SMA. Volume was most active after 3:00 p.m. ET, as prices were declining. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line declined again and remains bearishly divergent relative to its May highs and the price indexes. The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline on the NYSE rose moderately but also remains bearishly divergent relative to its May highs and the price indexes. The Net Number of New Highs-Lows remains far below its May high, thereby diverging bearishly.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/18/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new price highs. The Transports failed to confirm higher highs by the Industrials since 7/18/13, however, thereby demonstrating some divergence.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) has been whipsawing up and down around its own 50-day SMA since 4/30/13, going from bearish to neutral and back again. Longer term, however, QQQ/SPY fairly consistently has underperformed since it peaked on 4/10/12.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 20-month low on 6/24/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 19-month low on 6/24/13, confirming its bearish major trend.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 10 years on 7/9/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EFA/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 11/27/2007. Absolute price peaked at 64.14 on 5/22/13 and fell to a 6-month low on 6/24/13, confirming a significant downtrend.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) remains systematically bearish. OEF/SPY has been in a down trend since 9/24/12. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains systematically bullish. IWM/SPY has been rising since 5/1/13. Longer term, IWM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 4/5/11. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 6/27/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains systematically bullish. MDY/SPY has been rising since 6/21/13. Longer term, MDY/SPY has underperformed slightly since the ratio peaked on 4/5/11. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price remains systematically bearish but may be turning upward. Momentum indicators RSI and MACD based on the TLT price now are rising and show bullish divergence compared to price itself. An oversold bounce seems overdue after an unusually persistent selling wave from 5/1/13 to 7/31/13. Long term, the 33-year trend is still indicating rising bond prices. Support 105.85, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 109.69, 110.80, 114.77, 118.94, 121.32, 124.26, 126.08, 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price remains systematically bearish but may be turning upward. Momentum indicators RSI and MACD based on the IEF price now are rising and show bullish divergence compared to price itself. An oversold bounce seems overdue after an unusually persistent selling wave from 5/1/13 to 7/5/13. Long term, the 33-year trend is still indicating rising prices. Support 101.14, 100.45, 100.31, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 102.86, 107.62, 108.24, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has been systematically bullish since 5/3/13, when the ratio crossed above its 50-day SMA. Absolute price of JNK has been in a rising trend since 6/24/13 but remains below its high of 41.95 set on 5/8/13.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 7/16/13, when it crossed above the 50-day SMA. Absolute price of TIP peaked at 123.44 on 12/6/12 and remains systematically bearish.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/16/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). UUP also fell below its 200-day SMA on 7/25/13. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the past 3 years on 7/31/13 and remains systematically bearish. Price has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price remains in a systematically bullish trend above its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Support 36.22, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price trend turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 7/30/13 when price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/28/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. GLD has been trending down since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 122.73, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 130.14, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price trend remains systematically bearish. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/27/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The trend has been bearish since price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 19.89, 20.53, 22.65, 23.70, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 7/30/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish. SLV has underperformed GLD since SLV price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/24/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. The JJC price trend has been bearish since price peaked at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
10.38% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
9.57% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
7.57% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
2.87% , APD , AIR PRODS & CHEM
4.03% , FISV , FISERV
2.36% , FDX , FEDEX
4.91% , KBH , KB HOME
5.55% , CMCSA , COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A
3.32% , AN , AUTONATION
2.52% , HSP , HOSPIRA
2.53% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
1.35% , NCR , NCR
1.29% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
2.24% , HUM , HUMANA
3.25% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
1.36% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
1.66% , PFG , PRINCIPAL FINL
1.18% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.79% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
0.87% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
1.98% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
1.43% , MBI , MBIA
0.86% , WYN , Wyndham Worldwide
1.86% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
1.36% , AFL , AFLAC
1.62% , KMX , CarMax
0.62% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
0.73% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
2.26% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
3.01% , FLR , FLUOR
2.33% , HAR , Harman International
1.74% , HES , AMERADA HESS
0.61% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-10.21% , JCP , JC PENNEY
-6.94% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-1.56% , DELL , DELL
-3.25% , ADSK , AUTODESK
-2.75% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
-2.77% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
-2.75% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.98% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
-2.88% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
-1.58% , RWR , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.02% , EWT , Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.89% , AXP , AMERICAN EXPRESS
-1.39% , PLD , PROLOGIS TRUST
-3.13% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
-1.38% , IYR , Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.81% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.28% , SO , SOUTHERN
-1.63% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.75% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-1.84% , PEP , PEPSICO
-0.69% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-1.41% , MO , ALTRIA, MO
-2.77% , EXC , EXELON CORP
-1.69% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
-1.03% , SPG , SIMON PROP GRP
-0.90% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
-1.60% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
-1.63% , VNQ , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.46% , EWY , South Korea Index, EWY
-1.17% , F , FORD MOTOR
-0.59% , EEM , Emerging Markets, EEM
-1.31% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
-0.73% , XLU , Utilities SPDR, XLU
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.18% , Belgium Index, EWK
1.88% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.40% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.31% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.29% , Indonesia MV, IDX
1.18% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.10% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.85% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.85% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.81% , Austria Index, EWO
0.72% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.71% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.70% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.70% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.70% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.63% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.63% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.62% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.62% , India PS, PIN
0.61% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.60% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.58% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.54% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.52% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.51% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.51% , Spain Index, EWP
0.50% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.50% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.49% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.48% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.46% , Germany Index, EWG
0.45% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.44% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.43% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.40% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.40% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.37% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.36% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.36% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.34% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.33% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.32% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.32% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.32% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.31% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.30% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.29% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.28% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.28% , France Index, EWQ
0.27% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.25% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.23% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.23% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.23% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.22% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.21% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.20% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.20% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.19% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.19% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.19% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.19% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.19% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.17% , Water Resources, PHO
0.17% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.14% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.12% , Energy Global, IXC
0.12% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.10% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.10% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.10% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.10% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.09% , Global 100, IOO
0.09% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.09% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.08% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.07% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.07% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.07% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.07% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.05% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.05% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.04% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.04% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.04% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.03% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.03% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.02% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.02% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.02% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.01% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.01% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.00% , Italy Index, EWI
0.00% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.00% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.00% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.01% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.02% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.04% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.04% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.05% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.09% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.10% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.11% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.12% , Dividend International, PID
-0.12% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.12% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.14% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.17% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.21% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.22% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.24% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.26% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.26% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.34% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.34% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.35% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.39% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.41% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.43% , Networking, IGN
-0.44% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.45% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.46% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.50% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.56% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.59% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.59% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.64% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.69% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.73% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.75% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.81% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.84% , Russia MV, RSX
-0.85% , South Africa Index, EZA
-1.02% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.06% , Australia Index, EWA
-1.38% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-1.58% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.61% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.63% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.63% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-2.75% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
x . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1660.03, Fib 78.6% of May-June 2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1646.09, 50-day SMA
1638.72, Fib 61.8% of May-June 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1534.44, 200-day SMA
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
