Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically neutral again on 1/31/13, when it whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA. Too many whipsaws are a sign that Silver is stuck in an unprofitable trading range.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,498.11) fell 3.85 points or 0.26% on Thursday. NYSE trading volume rose 5% to confirm the price weakness.
SPX rose again in the first half hour, apparently in reaction to a surprisingly strong Chicago PMI report. That bounce fizzled nearly as quickly as it appeared, however, as SPX fell to the minus side by 10:15 a.m. ET.
Popular price momentum oscillators did not confirm recent new highs for the SPX, suggesting continuing momentum divergence. For example, daily and weekly RSI(14) and MACD(12,26,9) have stubbornly remained below their 2011-2012 highs, despite the higher highs for the SPX. In addition, the momentum divergence is more striking for long-term time frames, as measured by the Coppock Curve. Most of the popular price momentum oscillators have turned down over the past 2 trading days.
The Art of Contrary Thinking calls for questioning high and rising optimism. Investor sentiment data indicated high degrees of optimism and bullish complacency in recent weeks, matching or exceeding extremes in September, 2012, when many stock price indexes hit peaks and reversed to the downside. Elevated levels of optimism are bearish because when the majority is extremely bullish, investors are already fully invested in the market. Once everyone who is going to buy has already bought, stocks are vulnerable to a downside shakeout. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but the market mood always reverts to the mean–eventually. Pinpoint accuracy is not guaranteed.
Our clients’ separately managed accounts made gains in 6 of the past 7 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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Investors Intelligence Sentiment confirms that stock market newsletter advisors are extremely bullish. With 54.3% Bulls versus only 22.3% Bears as of 1/30/13, advisors are more bullish than they were at the stock market top in September, 2012, just before a 9% downside correction into November.
NYSE Margin Debt rose for the fifth consecutive month to $331 billion, the highest level since February 2008. Stocks may be vulnerable to forced selling if stock prices turn down.
Short interest in stocks listed on NYSE and Nasdaq both fell 5%, to 12.9 billion and 7.2 billion, respectively, in December. A decline in short interest means less potential demand for stocks from short covering.
VIX Fear Index collapsed to 12.29 on 1/18/13, its lowest level in 5 years, indicating a remarkable level of bullish complacency. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1509.94, high of 1/30/13
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1496.33, low of 1/28/13
1489.46, low of 1/24/13
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1463.76, low of 1/15/13
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1443.12, 50-day SMA
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept ’12 range
1424.41, Fibonacci 61.8% of Sept-Nov ’12 range
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1399.03, 200-day SMA
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1395.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Sept 2012 range
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.62, Fibonacci 50.0% of June-Sept 2012 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1346.11, Fibonacci 61.8% of June-Sept 2012 range
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1311.20, Fibonacci 78.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) turned systematically bearish again on 1/10/13 when it whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA and a 6-months long downtrend line. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12, and the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 10/2/12. Support 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.05, 22.30, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price turned systematically bearish on 1/11/13 when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price turned systematically neutral on 12/26/12, when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 6/7/12, although the 50-200 spread has narrowed since 1/3/13. Support 34.38, 33.57, 31.00, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price turned systematically neutral on 11/27/12, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. Support: 158.39, 157.40, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish on 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically neutral again on 1/31/13, when it whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA. Too many whipsaws are a sign that Silver is stuck in an unprofitable trading range. Support 29.73, 28.61, 27.97, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) turned systematically bullish again on 1/30/13, when it whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) has been consolidating losses in Triangle Consolidation chart pattern trading range between 38.99 and 51.41 for more than a year, since October 2011. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
20.28% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
11.52% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
8.38% , AN , AUTONATION
8.72% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
6.13% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
7.26% , CIEN.O , CIENA
4.64% , R , RYDER SYSTEM
6.79% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
3.92% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
3.46% , OXY , OCCIDENTAL
1.99% , ABT , ABBOTT LABS
1.02% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
2.26% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
8.58% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
9.23% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
1.43% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
1.40% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
1.54% , KMB , KIMBERLY CLARK
1.40% , MMC , MARSH & MCLENNAN
1.22% , PEY , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
3.01% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
3.92% , QCOM , QUALCOMM
1.65% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
1.13% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.68% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
3.33% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
1.81% , NE , NOBLE
2.19% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
2.70% , TLAB , TELLABS
3.16% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
1.72% , VIAB.O , VIACOM STK B
1.15% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
0.24% , MHP , MCGRAW HILL
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-9.13% , HAR , Harman International
-6.96% , DOW , DOW CHEMICAL
-3.09% , EL , Estee Lauder
-1.84% , XRX , XEROX
-5.06% , COP , CONOCOPHILLIPS
-3.14% , CL , COLGATE
-1.91% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
-1.95% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
-2.39% , UPS , UNITED PARCEL STK B
-2.94% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
-2.71% , RTN , RAYTHEON
-0.51% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.40% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-3.11% , GD , GENERAL DYNAMICS
-1.47% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
-1.05% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-3.07% , BLL , BALL
-4.19% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
-2.43% , CMCSA , COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A
-2.06% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
-0.70% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
-0.26% , VV , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.57% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
-0.90% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
-3.36% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
-1.16% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
-0.65% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
-1.08% , INTU , INTUIT
-1.47% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
-2.26% , PCAR , PACCAR
-0.58% , IFF , INTL FLAV & FRAG
-0.85% , ITT , ITT INDS
-1.89% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.78% Networking, IGN
1.37% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.32% South Africa Index, EZA
1.22% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
1.13% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.76% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.75% Russia MV, RSX
0.73% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.71% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.69% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.69% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.68% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.60% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.58% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.56% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.52% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.51% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.49% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.45% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.44% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.42% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.42% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.40% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.39% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.37% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.35% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.34% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.32% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.30% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.29% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.28% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.27% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.27% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.25% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.25% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.25% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.20% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.20% Japan Index, EWJ
0.20% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.20% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.19% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.18% Water Resources, PHO
0.17% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.15% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.13% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.12% Dividend International, PID
0.11% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.09% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.09% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.08% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.08% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.07% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.07% Italy Index, EWI
0.06% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.05% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.05% India PS, PIN
0.05% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.05% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.04% Australia Index, EWA
0.04% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.04% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.03% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.01% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.00% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.00% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.02% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.04% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.04% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.06% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.07% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.09% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.10% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.11% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.12% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.12% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.13% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.14% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.16% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.17% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.18% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.18% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.20% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.20% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.21% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.22% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.24% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.24% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.25% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.25% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.25% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.25% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.25% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.26% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.26% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.27% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.27% Austria Index, EWO
-0.27% Germany Index, EWG
-0.28% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.29% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.30% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.30% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.30% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.31% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.31% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.34% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.35% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.35% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.37% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.39% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.40% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.41% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.46% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.47% Global 100, IOO
-0.48% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.48% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.51% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.51% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.55% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.55% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.56% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.56% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.57% Energy Global, IXC
-0.58% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.59% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.60% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.61% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.62% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.63% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.65% Canada Index, EWC
-0.70% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.82% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.86% France Index, EWQ
-0.91% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.91% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.05% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.52% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.55% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.91% Belgium Index, EWK
-3.36% Spain Index, EWP
