The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,211.82) absolute fell below the lows of the previous 9 trading days on 12/14/11 and closed down by 1.13%. Similar weakness was confirmed by most other indexes.

SPX price is below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11, suggesting a persistent Bear trend.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 6 years on 12/14/11.

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) remains in bullish position above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11, suggesting a persistent Bull trend.

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above the highs of the previous 10 months on 12/14/11, again confirming its preexisting bullish trend.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 5 weeks on 12/14/11.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 5 months on 12/14/11. Previously, I warned that a break below last week’s low at 165.53 would be bearish. Further weakness appears probable.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 7 weeks on 12/14/11. JJC remains below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Stock Market Indicators

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,211.82) absolute fell below the lows of the previous 9 trading days on 12/14/11 and closed down by 1.13%.

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1307.28, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2011 range
1292.66, high of 10/27/11
1277.55, high of 11/8/2011
1267.06, high of 12/7/2011
1261.98, 200-day SMA
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1221.06, low of 10/26/2011
1215.42, low of 11/1/2011

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both Dow-Jones Averages, Industrial and Transportation, closed below their closing price lows of the previous 11 months. This Bear Market was confirmed on 10/3/11 by lower closing price lows for both Averages. A short-term downtrend was confirmed on 11/21/11 when both Averages closed below previous 4-week lows after making lower highs since peaking on 10/27/11.

A Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market is a powerful beast that must not be underestimated. The median Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market in history lasts 16 months and takes stock prices down 34%. In a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market, the big surprises usually come to the downside. Typically, there is no safe place to hide in a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market. Even those stocks that have held up relatively well through most of the Bear Market eventually succumb to the relentless tide of selling.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio broke down below the lows of the previous 3-months on 12/7/11 and has been trending lower since peaking on 9/23/11. Absolute price of the NASDAQ Composite remains below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has been bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 years on 12/14/11. BKF/SPY remains below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 years on 12/14/11. EEM/SPY remains below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 6 years on 12/14/11. EFA/SPY remains below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/14/11.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above the highs of the previous 10 weeks on 12/14/11 and has been in a rising trend since 11/4/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 8/25/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) has been in a downtrend since 4/5/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/11/11.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 7 weeks on 12/14/11 and has been in a downtrend since 4/5/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/24/11.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 69.5% Bulls plus Neutrals versus 30.5% Bears as of 12/14/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The 20-year median of Bulls plus Neutrals is 69.40 and the mean is 68.32.

VIX Fear Index broke down below the lows of the previous 4-months on 12/13/11, hitting 23.27 intraday. That is down from recent peaks of 30.91 on 12/8/11, 37.83 on 11/1/11, 46.88 on 10/4/11, and 48.00 on 8/8/11. This drop indicates a shift away from fear and toward confidence, which, according to the Art of Contrary Thinking, may be bearish. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) remains in bullish position above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11, suggesting a persistent Bull trend. Support 115.80, 115.21, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 123.05 and 125.03.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) remains in bullish position above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11, suggesting a persistent Bull trend. Support 103.29, 102.32, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 105.43 and 106.66.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has been in a downtrend since 2/8/11. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/20/11. JNK/LQD broke down below the lows of the previous 29-months on 10/3/11. Absolute price of JNK has been weak since 10/27/11 and remains bearish.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has been in a downtrend since peaking on 4/8/11. TIP/IEF remains below 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/15/11.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above the highs of the previous 10 months on 12/14/11, again confirming its preexisting bullish trend. UUP rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/14/11 and remains bullishly above both its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. The 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 21.97, 21.92, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 12/12/11, thereby confirming a major bearish downtrend in all time frames.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 5 weeks on 12/14/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/14/11. Finally, USO broke down below 2-year lows on 10/4/11 to confirm a major bear market. Support 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.74, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 5 months on 12/14/11. Previously, I warned that a break below last week’s low at 165.53 would be bearish. Further weakness appears probable. Support: 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 162.07, 165.53, 170.80, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) is bearishly below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11. GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 2 months on 12/14/11. SLV crossed below its 50-day SMA on 12/8/11, and SLV remains below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. SLV price broke down below the lows of the previous 7 months on 9/26/11, which confirmed a bearish major trend for the long term. Support 27.41, 26.03, and 24.44. Resistance: 32.53, 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) remains bearishly below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. This SLV/GLD downtrend means investors prefer Gold over Silver.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 7 weeks on 12/14/11. JJC remains below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
5.08% , AVP , AVON
1.52% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
1.54% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
3.22% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
0.25% , VIA.B , VIACOM STK B
0.92% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
3.10% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
1.24% , LOW , LOWES
1.89% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.74% , ICF , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.34% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
1.99% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
1.88% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
1.63% , MRK , MERCK & CO
0.82% , MMC , MARSH & MCLENNAN
0.59% , VNQ , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.80% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
0.10% , RKH , Bank Regional H, RKH
0.42% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.56% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
0.45% , CLX , CLOROX
0.17% , BBH , Biotech H, BBH
1.16% , GE , GENERAL ELECTRIC
0.20% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
0.20% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.05% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.43% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
1.34% , DHR , DANAHER
0.46% , PCL , PLUM CREEK TIMB
0.53% , RWR , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.98% , LLY , ELI LILLY
0.56% , PFG , PRINCIPAL FINL
0.22% , PGN , PROGRESS ENERGY

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.79% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
-2.77% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
-0.91% , XLG , LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
-2.38% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
-7.44% , UIS , UNISYS
-2.45% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
-1.72% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
-4.08% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-0.93% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
-0.98% , KLD , LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
-4.88% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-4.52% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
-1.13% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
-1.28% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
-2.10% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-2.64% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
-2.90% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-5.87% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.29% , VIS , Industrials VIPERs, VIS
-4.86% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
-1.06% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-0.96% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
-0.71% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
-1.16% , OEF , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-6.04% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
-3.94% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-2.36% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-5.24% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
-1.73% , VGT , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.82% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
-1.88% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
-5.41% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
-2.53% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.89% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.08% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.74% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.59% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.57% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.53% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.42% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.25% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.20% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.18% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.17% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.07% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.05% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.05% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.06% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.12% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.17% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.17% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.19% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.21% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.23% Russia MV, RSX
-0.26% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.40% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.46% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.46% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.51% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.55% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.63% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.70% Dividend International, PID
-0.73% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.74% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.75% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.78% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.78% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.80% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.80% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.83% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.83% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.84% Spain Index, EWP
-0.86% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.88% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.90% Global 100, IOO
-0.91% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.91% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.95% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.95% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.96% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.99% South Africa Index, EZA
-1.00% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-1.00% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.03% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.04% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.04% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.04% Belgium Index, EWK
-1.05% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.06% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.07% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.07% Germany Index, EWG
-1.09% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-1.09% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.10% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-1.10% Austria Index, EWO
-1.12% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.12% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.13% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.14% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-1.14% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.15% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.16% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.18% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.19% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.19% EAFE Index, EFA
-1.20% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-1.22% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.25% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-1.26% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.27% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.30% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.31% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.32% MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.34% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.34% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.35% Australia Index, EWA
-1.36% Singapore Index, EWS
-1.39% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.40% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-1.40% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.42% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.43% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.43% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.43% European VIPERs, VGK
-1.44% Emerging Markets, EEM
-1.44% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.45% Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.45% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.46% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-1.46% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.49% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.53% Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.54% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.56% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.56% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.57% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.57% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.60% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.63% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.65% Water Resources, PHO
-1.68% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.70% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.72% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-1.73% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.80% South Korea Index, EWY
-1.81% Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.81% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.87% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.90% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.91% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.93% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.95% Energy Global, IXC
-1.95% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-2.00% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.05% Networking, IGN
-2.10% Italy Index, EWI
-2.26% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-2.31% Canada Index, EWC
-2.36% France Index, EWQ
-2.47% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-2.79% Energy DJ, IYE
-2.81% Energy SPDR, XLE
-2.90% India PS, PIN
-2.96% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-3.05% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-3.06% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-3.49% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-3.51% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-3.55% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-4.83% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-5.05% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-5.87% Silver Trust iS, SLV