The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,292.08) rose 0.89% on Tuesday. Volume on the NYSE rose 25%.
Foreign markets were up more than 2% before the U.S. open. SPX opened on a large upside gap above its October, 2011, intraday peak of 1292.66. Stock prices peaked at 10:05 a.m. and closed below the open and range midpoint, both of which indicate profit taking.
SPX still appears overbought and has demonstrated relatively low upside momentum despite Tuesday morning’s upside gap. With the majority of investors already bullish, and therefore already in the market, stocks may have difficulty extending a rally at this time.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) rose above 7-week highs and its 50-day SMA, indicating a bounce for the short-term price trend.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above the highs of the previous 4 weeks and its 200-day SMA.
VIX Fear Index broke down below the lows of the previous 5-months, hitting 20.05 intraday. That is down from recent peaks of 30.91 on 12/8/11, 37.83 on 11/1/11, 46.88 on 10/4/11, and 48.00 on 8/8/11. This drop indicates a shift away from fear and toward confidence, which, according to Humphrey Bancroft Neill’s Art of Contrary Thinking, may be bearish.
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.
But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA on 1/9/12. TLT remains well above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11, suggesting a persistently bullish major trend for the longer term. Support 117.57, 115.80, 115.21, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 121.76, 124.02 and 125.03.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price appears to be consolidating gains, short term. IEF remains in bullish position above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11, suggesting a persistently bullish major trend. Support 104.45, 104.25, 103.29, 102.32, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 106.04 and 106.66.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) remains below its falling 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/20/11.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA on 1/10/12 and remains below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/15/11.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) eased slightly lower after rising above the high of the previous 10 months on 1/6/12, thereby reconfirming its bullish major trend. UUP rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/14/11 and rose above its 200-day SMA on 11/9/11. The 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 22.24, 21.97, 21.92, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.77, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) rose above 7-week highs and its 50-day SMA on 1/10/12, indicating a bounce for the short-term price trend. Longer term, DBA price fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 12/16/11, confirming a bearish major downtrend.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) has been correcting and consolidating over the past 4 trading days. USO broke out above the highs of the previous 7 months on 1/4/12, thereby signaling a major uptrend. Support 38.56. 37.87, 35.73, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.96, 40.74, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above the highs of the previous 4 weeks and its 200-day SMA on 1/10/12, indicating a minor uptrend. GLD fell below the lows of the previous 5 months on 12/29/11, confirming a significant bearish trend. On 12/12/11, I warned that a break below the low at 165.53 set on 12/6/11 would be bearish. GLD remains below its 50-day SMA. Support: 154.55, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 159.47, 162.07, 165.53, 170.80, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) remains bearishly below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11. GDX/GLD fell below 3-year lows on 12/19/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below the lows of the previous 11 months on 12/29/11. SLV remains bearishly below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. SLV crossed below its 50-day SMA on 12/8/11 and crossed below its 200-day SMA on 9/22/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 25.65 and 24.44. Resistance: 28.99, 32.53, 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 12/28/11, confirming a bearish trend. SLV/GLD remains bearishly below 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. This SLV/GLD downtrend means investors prefer Gold over Silver.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 1/10/12. JJC remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
49.96% , EK , EASTMAN KODAK
0.68% , JKF , Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
1.01% , ISI , LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
5.66% , MBI , MBIA
2.56% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
2.68% , RKH , Bank Regional H, RKH
0.80% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
5.77% , TXT , TEXTRON
1.44% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.31% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
7.39% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
9.35% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
3.22% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
9.67% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
2.07% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
6.11% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
4.32% , CI , CIGNA
3.81% , PIN , India PS, PIN
2.56% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
2.22% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
5.55% , LM , LEGG MASON
4.47% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
1.27% , VB , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
4.68% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
1.49% , IWO , Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
3.54% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
4.85% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
3.22% , MHP , MCGRAW HILL
1.84% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
4.46% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
1.75% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
4.00% , FCX , FREEPRT MCMORAN STK B
3.36% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.19% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-10.46% , TIF , TIFFANY
-13.07% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
-8.31% , GT , GOODYEAR TIRE
-12.99% , LIZ , LIZ CLAIRBORNE
-2.48% , CHD , Church & Dwight
-0.68% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-1.70% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
-0.91% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-0.20% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.45% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
-0.50% , EMC , EMC
-0.76% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
-1.83% , SNV , SYNOVUS
-0.29% , SLM.O , SLM CORP
-0.81% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.86% , COH , COACH
-1.00% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
-0.24% , HNZ , HJ HEINZ
-0.42% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
-0.36% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
-0.18% , WAT , WATERS
-0.31% , NI , NISOURCE
-0.41% , MHS , MEDCO HEALTH
-0.36% , SO , SOUTHERN
-0.42% , CB , CHUBB
-0.74% , GE , GENERAL ELECTRIC
-1.78% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-0.64% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
-0.60% , JWN , NORDSTROM
-0.65% , VFC , VF
-0.74% , CSCO , CISCO SYSTEMS
-0.51% , MDT , MEDTRONIC
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
4.09% India Earnings WTree, EPI
3.81% India PS, PIN
3.27% Silver Trust iS, SLV
2.88% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
2.80% Russia MV, RSX
2.75% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
2.73% Singapore Index, EWS
2.66% Italy Index, EWI
2.57% Spain Index, EWP
2.55% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
2.31% Taiwan Index, EWT
2.26% China 25 iS, FXI
2.24% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
2.18% Emerging Markets, EEM
2.14% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
2.14% France Index, EWQ
2.07% South Korea Index, EWY
2.06% Brazil Index, EWZ
2.05% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
2.02% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.96% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.96% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.92% Australia Index, EWA
1.91% Water Resources, PHO
1.89% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.87% Materials SPDR, XLB
1.86% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.82% Austria Index, EWO
1.82% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.81% Germany Index, EWG
1.77% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.76% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.75% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.75% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.72% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.69% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.65% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.61% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.61% Latin Am 40, ILF
1.60% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.55% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.53% Belgium Index, EWK
1.53% European VIPERs, VGK
1.52% EAFE Index, EFA
1.49% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
1.49% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.46% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
1.46% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.45% Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.44% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.44% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.42% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.42% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.40% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.38% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.37% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.37% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.36% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
1.35% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.34% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
1.34% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.31% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.30% REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.30% Canada Index, EWC
1.29% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.29% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.29% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.29% Microcap Russell, IWC
1.29% MidCap Russell, IWR
1.27% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.27% Mexico Index, EWW
1.25% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.25% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.22% Sweden Index, EWD
1.21% Japan Index, EWJ
1.21% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.20% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
1.18% Global 100, IOO
1.17% United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.14% South Africa Index, EZA
1.13% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
1.11% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
1.11% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.06% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.05% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.02% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
1.01% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.00% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.99% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.99% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.97% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.96% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.94% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.93% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.91% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.90% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.90% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.89% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.87% Energy Global, IXC
0.87% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.86% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.86% Energy DJ, IYE
0.84% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.79% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.77% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.76% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.75% Dividend International, PID
0.74% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.74% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.73% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.72% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.72% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.71% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.70% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.70% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.67% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.67% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.65% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.59% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.58% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.51% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.51% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.50% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.49% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.35% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.35% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.34% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.28% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.28% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.25% Networking, IGN
0.19% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.14% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.03% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.17% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.20% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.31% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.81% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.91% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
