NYSE Margin Debt rose $30 billion to $315 billion in September, the highest level since March 2011, a few weeks before that high that year. Stocks may be vulnerable to forced selling if stock prices fall significantly.

Health Care stock sector absolute price turned systematically neutral on 11/7/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA.

Financial stock sector absolute price turned systematically neutral on 11/7/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral on 10/11/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. OEF/SPY fell below its 200-day SMA on 11/7/11.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) turned systematically bearish on 11/7/11 when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA.

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) turned systematically bullish on 11/7/12 when price rose above its 50-day SMA.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) turned systematically bullish on 11/7/12 when price rose above its 50-day SMA

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 11/7/12, confirming its preexisting bearish trend.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 9 weeks on 11/7/12.

The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,394.53) fell 2.37% on Wednesday. It was the largest daily loss in more than 5 months, since 6/1/12. SPX fell below its lowest lows of the previous 13 weeks, down to its lowest level since 8/3/12.

NYSE trading volume rose 32% to a level 18% above its 200-day SMA to confirm the price index breakdown.

The technical condition of the stock market does not support the excessive optimism that the bullish majority of stock investors and traders clearly exhibited over the past several months. Most of this optimism appeared to be based on expectations that the U.S. Fed and European Central Bank would buy bonds in unlimited quantities (with fiat currencies printed out of thin air and backed by nothing but a theory and a hope). Such inflation and debasement of the currencies bring with them unintended consequences, economic distortions and misallocation of financial resources, as well as potential for accelerating loss of purchasing power of the fiat currencies over the long term.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

*For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
click here.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.

Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 6 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1464.02, high of 10/18/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1434.75, 50-day SMA
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1395.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Sept 2012 range

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1380.40, 200-day SMA
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.62, Fibonacci 50.0% of June-Sept 2012 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1346.11, Fibonacci 61.8% of June-Sept 2012 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1311.20, Fibonacci 78.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Fixed-Income Investmentsturning systematically neutral

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) turned systematically bullish on 11/7/12 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. TLT remains above its 200-day SMA, and TLT’s 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 119.87, 118.05, 117.44, 115.69, 114.82, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 124.78, 125.09, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) turned systematically bullish on 11/7/12 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. IEF remains above its 200-day SMA, and IEF’s 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 106.59, 106.42, 105.84, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 108.70, 108.99, 109.32, and 109.89.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/25/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. JNK/LQD fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/20/12. JNK/LQD 50-day SMA has remained consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/1/12.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned systematically bullish on 10/10/12 when the TIP/IEF 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA. TIP/IEF remains above both the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/2/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12, and the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 10/2/12. Support 21.86, 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.36, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 10/15/12, confirming a loss of upside momentum. DBA turned systematically neutral on 9/17/12 when price crossed below its 50-day SMA. Price remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 11/7/12, confirming its preexisting bearish trend. USO turned systematically bearish on 9/19/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. USO price fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/17/12, and the 50-day SMA remains below its 200-day SMA. Support 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.70, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/2/12, confirming its preexisting corrective trend. GLD turned systematically neutral on 10/23/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. GLD price rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/22/12. GLD 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 9/20/12. Support: 159.56, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 167.28, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) looks choppy/neutral. GDX/GLD turned systematically neutral on 11/5/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA since 10/19/12.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/2/12, confirming its preexisting corrective trend. SLV fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/19/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. SLV has been trading around its 200-day SMA. SLV price 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/1/12. Support 29.28, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 31.52, 32.23, 33.23, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/7/12, confirming its preexisting corrective trend. SLV/GLD fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/19/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. SLV/GLD has been trading around its 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV/GLD 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/9/12.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 9 weeks on 11/5/12. JJC price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/22/12 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 10/19/12. “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, and so this price weakness may be taken as a warning about economic conditions ahead.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
9.64% , CIEN.O , CIENA
9.58% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
4.27% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
7.25% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
4.29% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
2.14% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
2.90% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
4.18% , TWX , TIME WARNER INC
3.48% , BBY , BEST BUY
4.43% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
2.28% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
2.42% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
1.81% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
4.74% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
2.07% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
1.29% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
0.84% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
1.42% , HSIC , Henry Schein Inc
0.99% , ABC , AMERISOURCEBERGN
1.61% , NWSA , News Corporation, NWSA
2.08% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
0.52% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
0.23% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.32% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
0.38% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
2.65% , HSP , HOSPIRA
0.27% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.14% , SPG , SIMON PROP GRP
0.12% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
0.41% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
0.03% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
0.06% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
0.36% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-4.01% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.69% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
-7.88% , HUM , HUMANA
-7.16% , MBI , MBIA
-8.58% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
-1.89% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
-1.46% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.92% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-5.60% , JPM , J P MORGAN CHASE
-7.83% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
-1.37% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.83% , PFM , Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
-9.05% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
-2.08% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-7.14% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
-5.47% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
-4.10% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
-2.24% , VTI , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.22% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-7.06% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
-3.45% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-2.69% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW
-2.92% , IYF , Financial DJ US, IYF
-3.78% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
-2.41% , PRF , Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
-6.65% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-2.26% , FDL , Dividend Leaders, FDL
-3.34% , XLF , Financial SPDR, XLF
-3.98% , ALTR , ALTERA
-5.03% , BBT , BB&T
-2.56% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
-3.18% , MRK , MERCK & CO
-2.41% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.28% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
1.81% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.84% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.57% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.27% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.23% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.21% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.11% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.08% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.02% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.14% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.16% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.32% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.38% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.40% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.45% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.47% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.50% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.58% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.58% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.60% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.81% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.83% India PS, PIN
-0.85% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.89% Australia Index, EWA
-0.90% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.96% Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.01% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.03% Belgium Index, EWK
-1.07% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.10% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.17% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.19% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-1.20% Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.21% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.22% Austria Index, EWO
-1.24% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.24% Dividend International, PID
-1.31% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.32% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.32% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-1.33% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.35% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.36% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-1.36% Networking, IGN
-1.37% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.37% Canada Index, EWC
-1.40% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.40% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.46% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.46% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.47% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.50% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-1.52% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.53% South Korea Index, EWY
-1.58% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.58% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.61% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.62% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-1.64% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-1.67% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.68% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.70% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.73% European VIPERs, VGK
-1.76% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.81% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-1.87% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.88% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-1.89% Global 100, IOO
-1.91% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-1.91% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.91% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.92% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.94% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-1.94% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.95% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.97% MidCap Russell, IWR
-2.01% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-2.02% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-2.03% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-2.04% Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.07% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-2.07% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-2.08% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-2.08% Italy Index, EWI
-2.10% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-2.10% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-2.12% France Index, EWQ
-2.12% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-2.13% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-2.17% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-2.18% China 25 iS, FXI
-2.19% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-2.20% Spain Index, EWP
-2.20% Water Resources, PHO
-2.21% Germany Index, EWG
-2.21% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-2.22% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-2.24% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-2.26% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-2.26% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-2.27% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-2.27% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-2.27% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-2.28% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-2.35% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-2.35% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-2.36% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-2.36% Mexico Index, EWW
-2.41% Energy Global, IXC
-2.43% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-2.46% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-2.48% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-2.49% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-2.50% Technology SPDR, XLK
-2.50% Value VIPERs, VTV
-2.51% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-2.53% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-2.55% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-2.56% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-2.61% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-2.61% Energy SPDR, XLE
-2.63% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-2.64% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-2.69% Technology DJ US, IYW
-2.70% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-2.75% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.78% Energy DJ, IYE
-2.79% Microcap Russell, IWC
-2.80% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-2.82% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-2.84% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-2.89% Russia MV, RSX
-2.92% Financial DJ US, IYF
-3.09% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-3.20% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-3.34% Financial SPDR, XLF
-3.95% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-4.01% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-4.01% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-4.15% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO