Friday, October 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are solidly lower U.S. stock index futures prices, sharply lower crude oil prices and higher gold prices.
* JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Crude oil prices sold off sharply overnight amid the specter of worldwide recession and lessening demand for raw commodities, including crude oil. The key $80.00-a-barrel technical support level is now within striking distance. OPEC members have scheduled an emergency meeting to likely cut crude oil production amid declining worldwide demand. However, history shows that when crude oil prices are falling, OPEC can do little to stop the slide. The price trend in crude remains down as prices today hit a fresh 12-month low. Once $80.00 is breached, crude oil bears will then set their sights on the $70.00 mark.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are solidly lower in early morning trading, and hit fresh contract lows, following lower stock market prices overseas overnight. Bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight contract low of 873.20. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 850.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 900.00 and then at the overnight high of 918.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 963.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:————– 942.70
1st Support:——– 875.85
2nd Support:——– 839.20
1st Resistance:—– 979.35
2nd Resistance:— 1,046.20
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight contract low of 1,231.75. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,200.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,280.50 and then at 1,300.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,320.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,302.35
1st Support:—— 1,232.70
2nd Support:—— 1,191.35
1st Resistance:— 1,341.70
2nd Resistance:— 1,411.35
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,300 and then more stops just below support at 8,200. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,500 and then just above resistance at 8,600. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 9,010
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 8,870
1st Support:—— 8,278
2nd Support:—— 7,957
1st Resistance:— 9,191
2nd Resistance:— 9,783
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer early today. This week’s big downside price action has produced near-term chart damage and spooked the bulls.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 117 even and then at the overnight high of 117 20/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 116 8/32 and then at 116 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118 18/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 117 17/32
1st Support:—– 116 1/32
2nd Support:—– 114 29/32
1st Resistance:– 118 27/32
2nd Resistance:– 120 5/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 114.00.0 and then at 114.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 113.07.0 and then at 113.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.01.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:———– 114 13/32
1st Support:—– 113 14/32
2nd Support:—– 112 16/32
1st Resistance:– 115 11/32
2nd Resistance:– 116 10/32
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today and hit a fresh contract high overnight. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high contract of 82.07 and then at 82.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 81.37 and then at 81.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 79.77. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5
The December Euro is lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3550 and then just below support at 1.3500. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3600 and then at the overnight high of 1.3692. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3738. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is solidly higher in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $932.00 and then at the overnight high of $937.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $913.00 and then at $900.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $894.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are solidly lower early today. In November crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $84.00 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of 85.13. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $81.13 and then more sell stops just below support at $80.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $85.77. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were solidly lower in overnight trading, amid bearish “outside markets”–lower crude oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar, and as the specter of worldwide recession looms. Traders are awaiting today’s USDA crop production report. However, it appears that report will be overshadowed by the outside markets today.
