Stocks Look Better, But What Did “Dr. Copper” Say?

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/16/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Long term, JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,862.76, up 0.01%) remains in a downtrend. SPX recovered from an early loss on Thursday to close nearly unchanged. Clearly, that was an improvement, but still it might be premature to speculate that the bull market has revived. SPX remains below both its 50- and 200-day SMAs, now at 1,967.72 and 1,905.75.

NYSE total volume fell 17% to a level 53% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.

The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at -125, has been running below its peaks above +800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.

Stock market sentiment indicators have been at excessive, multiyear high levels of bullishness (which is bearish), bearish momentum divergences have been accumulating, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution. Historically, September and October have been the seasonally weakest months of the year for more than a century.

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 9/18/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs. Both Averages entered Secondary Reactions, taking the form of sharp downside corrections, since making new highs on 9/18/14, however.

NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) declined since making a peak on 10/9/14 and is now systematically neutral. The absolute price of QQQ has been trending down since 9/18/14 and is systematically neutral.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/1/14. BKF/SPY crossed below its 50-day SMA on 9/10/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Longer term, BKF/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time over the past 4 years.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/1/14. EEM/SPY has been systematically neutral most of the time since making a low on 3/13/14. Longer term, EEM/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time since making a high on 10/14/10.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 10 years on 10/10/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 13 months on 10/13/14 and remains systematically bullish. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been weak since it peaked at 264 on 7/1/14.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest level in more than 2 years on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. The rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA on 8/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 21.66, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 9/22/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downtrend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 8/29/14, thereby giving a systematically bearish signal.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell to its lowest price level in 27 months on 10/15/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.62, 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 10 months on 10/7/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Absolute price of GDX has been trending down since it peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 17.74, 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/16/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. The trend of SLV/GLD has pointed down most of the time since it peaked on 4/28/11, and Silver continues to underperform Gold.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/16/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Long term, JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
2.31% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
4.93% , ITT , ITT INDS
6.38% , SNA , SNAP ON
4.15% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
1.96% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.92% , IJH , MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
4.34% , UNP , UNION PACIFIC
3.22% , HSP , HOSPIRA
4.45% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
1.66% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.96% , EFX , EQUIFAX
2.66% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
3.87% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
2.63% , ITW , ILLINOIS TOOL
3.93% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
1.92% , DOV , DOVER
1.39% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
3.20% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
1.77% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
2.40% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
2.06% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
1.48% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
0.61% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
3.66% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
1.89% , EMR , EMERSON ELECTRIC
1.14% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
0.08% , JKF , Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
1.12% , IWN , Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
2.35% , MRO , MARATHON OIL
1.82% , KMX , CarMax
1.40% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.74% , XLI , Industrial SPDR, XLI
3.07% , DHR , DANAHER
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-19.37% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
-4.70% , EBAY , EBAY
-3.02% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
-4.52% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
-3.95% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
-1.60% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.46% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.32% , PMR , Retail, PMR
-2.57% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
-2.60% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
-0.90% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-2.30% , PCG , PG&E
-1.60% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
-2.78% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
-1.24% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-2.12% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
-1.31% , DTE , DTE ENERGY
-0.06% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.74% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.98% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-2.63% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
-1.15% , EWS , Singapore Index, EWS
-1.51% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-1.30% , TMO , THERMO ELECTRON
-1.23% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
-0.89% , FLR , FLUOR
-0.11% , IGV , Software, IGV
-0.65% , NWSA , News Corporation, NWSA
-2.38% , MRK , MERCK & CO
-0.40% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-1.17% , PLL , PALL
-0.78% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.93% , EFA , EAFE Index, EFA
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.87% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.73% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.66% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.96% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.93% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.84% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.79% , Energy SPDR, XLE
1.75% , Energy DJ, IYE
1.66% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.54% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.52% , Canada Index, EWC
1.44% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.40% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.38% , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.16% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
1.16% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.14% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.14% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.13% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
1.12% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
1.09% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.09% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.08% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.07% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.02% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.00% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.99% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.93% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.92% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.88% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.85% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.83% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.74% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.71% , Water Resources, PHO
0.69% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.68% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.66% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.61% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.61% , Energy Global, IXC
0.57% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.56% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.52% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.50% , Australia Index, EWA
0.46% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.42% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.40% , Dividend International, PID
0.36% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.33% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.32% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.27% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.22% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.21% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.21% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.20% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.20% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.19% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.19% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.19% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.18% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.16% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.13% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.12% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.11% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.11% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.09% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.09% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.09% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.08% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.08% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.06% , Networking, IGN
0.04% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.02% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.01% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.00% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.00% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.03% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.04% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.04% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.06% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.06% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.06% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.07% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.08% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.09% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.10% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.11% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.12% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.19% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.21% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.22% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.22% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.24% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.25% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.27% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.29% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.35% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.35% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.37% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.40% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.40% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.43% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.44% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.44% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.51% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.55% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.55% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.59% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.59% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.63% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.64% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.66% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.68% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.70% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.74% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.74% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.75% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.78% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.89% , Global 100, IOO
-0.90% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.91% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.93% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-1.00% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.02% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.03% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.05% , European VIPERs, VGK
-1.12% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.14% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.15% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.15% , Singapore Index, EWS
-1.24% , Austria Index, EWO
-1.44% , France Index, EWQ
-1.46% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.60% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.77% , Belgium Index, EWK
-1.90% , Russia MV, RSX
-1.98% , Italy Index, EWI
-2.05% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-2.38% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.41% , India PS, PIN
-2.60% , Spain Index, EWP
-3.61% , Brazil Index, EWZ
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
2019.26, high of 9/19/2014
1,967.72, 50-day SMA
1,905.75, 200-day SMA
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1902.17, high of 5/13/2014
1897.28, high of 4/4/2014

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009