Utilities stock sector absolute price rose to a new 12-month high on 9/1/10 and remains bullish.
Consumer Discretionary stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose to a new 2-month high on 9/1/10 and remains bullish.
Industrial stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) crossed above the 50-day SMA on 9/1/10, turning bullish again. Absolute price crossed above the 50-day SMA on 9/1/10, turning neutral again.
Technology stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell to another new 3-month low on 9/1/10 and remains neutral.
Financial stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell to a new 9-month low on 8/30/10 and remains bearish—despite a 3.88% price jump on 9/1/10.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose to another new 10-month high on 9/1/10, again confirming a significant bullish trend. Absolute price of EEM rose into the neutral zone on 9/1/10: the price 50-day remains below the 200-day SMA.
Copper nearest futures contract price rose further above 4-month highs on 9/1/10, again confirming an intermediate-term Secondary Uptrend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price surrendered most of the previous 2-day’s gains on 9/1/10, which by itself is not much of a clue. The bond set its highest daily close in 19-months on 8/31/10, again confirming that the major trend remained bullish.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell below 8-day lows on 9/1/10. The short-term trend now appears to be bearish, while the Secondary intermediate-term trend appears uncertain…possibly bearish. Long term, USD may be consolidating losses since bottoming at 70.805 in March 2008.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 29.4% Bulls versus 37.7% Bears as of 9/1/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio fell to 0.78, down from 1.07 the previous week. This ratio is now at its lowest level of bullish sentiment in 17 months, since 3/25/09. The ratio has fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,080.29) rose above the highs of the previous 6 trading days and above a 3-week downtrendline on 9/1/10. SPX remains below falling 50 and 200 SMAs, however. The market may need to demonstrate upside follow-through in order to turn around investor confidence, which has fallen to a low level. The stock market has been consolidating in a trading range between the SPX 1131.23 high of 6/21/2010 and the SPX 1010.91 low of 7/1/2010. It still may be a “show me” market. Further consolidation seems likely in days ahead.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.35% , PZJ , SmallCap PS Zacks, PZJ
3.93% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
2.29% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
11.06% , KBH , KB HOME
3.79% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
2.44% , PID , Dividend International, PID
1.54% , TBH , Telebras HOLDRS, TBH
4.31% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
2.05% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
4.11% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
2.17% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
3.84% , VFH , Financials VIPERs, VFH
5.05% , PKI , PERKINELMER
6.66% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
8.98% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
2.54% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
3.87% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
3.78% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
3.28% , DSG , Growth Small Cap DJ, DSG
3.31% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
2.89% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
5.56% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
2.16% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
7.74% , ETN , EATON
7.35% , CMI , CUMMINS
6.74% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
8.67% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
2.95% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
3.00% , PRF , Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
4.52% , RKH , Bank Regional H, RKH
9.83% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
2.16% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
4.20% , WY , WEYERHAEUSER
3.22% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
4.94% , CMCSA , COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A
4.39% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
4.63% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
4.25% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
5.48% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
3.65% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.37% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-4.52% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
-6.56% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-2.36% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.12% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.45% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.24% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
-5.76% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-2.95% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-0.78% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
-0.31% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.14% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.49% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.38% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-1.16% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
-1.63% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-0.25% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-0.05% , SEE , SEALED AIR
-5.80% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Utilities (XLU) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) rose to a new 12-month high on 8/31/10 and remains bullish: above 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50 above the 200. Absolute price of XLU rose to a new 12-month high on 9/1/10 and remains bullish. Support 30.15, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 31.64 and 32.08.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose to a new 2-month high on 9/1/10 and remains bullish. The Ratio remains above both SMAs and the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of XLY turned neutral on 9/1/10 as price crossed above the 50-day SMA. Support 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 32.41, 33.12, 34.39, 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose to a new 12-month high on 8/31/10. Technically, the Ratio remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA–although the SMAs appear to be converging toward a possible bullish crossover in weeks ahead. Absolute price remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 32.93, 33.06, 35.47, and 37.56.
Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) crossed above the 50-day SMA on 9/1/10, turning bullish again. Absolute price crossed above the 50-day SMA on 9/1/10, turning neutral again. Support 27.67, 26.79 and 26.66. Resistance 31.15, 32.41, 33.46, 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 7-month highs on 8/24/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Absolute price of XLP remains neutral, fluctuating between 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Support 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 27.83, 27.95, 28.20, 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell to another new 3-month low on 9/1/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLK remains bearish, below both SMAs and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 20.01 and 19.51. Resistance 22.62, 23.27, 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) has been bearish since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV has been bearish since peaking on 1/20/10. Support 27.49. Resistance 29.38, 29.93, 30.83, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Energy (XLE) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) has been mostly bearish since peaking on 7/1/08. Absolute price of XLE turned mostly bearish after peaking on 4/26/10. Support 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 56.70, 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell to a new 9-month low on 8/30/10 and remains bearish—despite a 3.88% price jump on 9/1/10. Absolute price fell to a new 12-month low on 8/25/10 and has been in a bearish trend since peaking on 4/15/10. Support 13.29 and 13.08. Resistance 15.09, 15.67, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose to another new 10-month high on 9/1/10, again confirming a significant bullish trend. Absolute price of EEM rose into the neutral zone on 9/1/10: the price 50-day remains below the 200-day SMA.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below 6-month lows on 8/13/10, thereby confirming a significant correction to the downside.
The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) appears neutral for the intermediate term, consolidating gains since peaking on 6/15/10. Longer term, RSP /SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 11/19/08.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) appears to be consolidating losses since its low on 6/15/10. Big caps have been out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) has crossed below both 50 & 100 SMAs and remains technically neutral. Still, this Ratio has demonstrated underperformance of Small Caps since peaking on 5/17/10. Longer term, however, IWM/SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 4/8/99.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) appears neutral for the intermediate term, consolidating gains since peaking on 5/28/10. Longer term, MDY /SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 4/7/99.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract recovered most of its previous day’s loss on 9/1/10. Oil may be bearish: it has been heading down most days since making a high at 83.40 on 8/4/10. A longer time frame downside correction started after the 87.15 peak on 5/3/10. Watch critical support around 70.76 and 70.35. Support 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 77.03, 84.55, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract rose above 8-week highs on 8/31/10, again confirming a significant uptrend. Support 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, 1155.6, 1124.3, 1120.9, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9, and 989.3. Resistance: 1264.8 and 1267.1.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) has been whipsawing sideways through moving averages in recent months. Best stand aside until a clear trend emerges.
Silver/Gold Ratio has been mostly neutral, consolidating losses since making a low on 2/8/10. Longer term, Silver has underperformed Gold since 4/19/06.
Copper nearest futures contract price rose further above 4-month highs on 9/1/10, again confirming an intermediate-term Secondary Uptrend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 3.68, 3.795, 4.0825, and 4.27.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price surrendered most of the previous 2-day’s gains on 9/1/10, which by itself is not much of a clue. The bond set its highest daily close in 19-months on 8/31/10, again confirming that the major trend remained bullish. Support 130.29, 126.01, 125.07, 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below 3-month lows on 8/26/10, again confirming the preexisting bearish trend. The Ratio has been heading lower since the peak on 1/8/10. From 3/9/09 to 1/8/10, JNK/LQD was bullish, with the ratio moving upward and Junk outperforming.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell further below 15-month lows on 8/24/10 and remains RELATIVELY bearish. This implies that investors are choosing less inflation protection.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell below 8-day lows on 9/1/10. The short-term trend now appears to be bearish, while the Secondary intermediate-term trend appears uncertain…possibly bearish. Long term, USD may be consolidating losses since bottoming at 70.805 in March 2008. Support 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90, 74.27, and 70.805. Resistance 83.64, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 29.4% Bulls versus 37.7% Bears as of 9/1/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio fell to 0.78, down from 1.07 the previous week. This ratio is now at its lowest level of bullish sentiment in 17 months, since 3/25/09. The ratio has fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.
The Dow Theory suggests a Primary Tide Bull Market, in my interpretation. The Dow Theory last confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,080.29) rose above the highs of the previous 6 trading days and above a 3-week downtrendline on 9/1/10. SPX remains below falling 50 and 200 SMAs, however. The market may need to demonstrate upside follow-through in order to turn around investor confidence, which has fallen to a low level. It still may be a “show me” market. The stock market has been consolidating in a trading range between the SPX 1131.23 high of 6/21/2010 and the SPX 1010.91 low of 7/1/2010. Further consolidation seems likely in days ahead.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
1173.57, high of 5/13/2010
1040.00, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2010 range
1131.23, high of 6/21/2010
1100.14, high of 8/17/2010
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
5.56% Australia Index, EWA
5.48% Sweden Index, EWD
4.65% France Index, EWQ
4.63% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
4.47% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
4.31% Italy Index, EWI
4.29% Spain Index, EWP
4.13% Brazil Index, EWZ
4.12% EMU Europe Index, EZU
4.09% Water Resources, PHO
4.05% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
4.03% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
4.02% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
3.99% Germany Index, EWG
3.98% Financial Services DJ, IYG
3.97% Industrial SPDR, XLI
3.95% European VIPERs, VGK
3.94% Belgium Index, EWK
3.93% Energy Global, IXC
3.89% Financial SPDR, XLF
3.87% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
3.87% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
3.87% South Korea Index, EWY
3.85% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
3.85% Indonesia MV, IDX
3.84% Financials VIPERs, VFH
3.79% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
3.76% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
3.74% Energy VIPERs, VDE
3.73% Energy SPDR, XLE
3.72% Netherlands Index, EWN
3.72% Energy DJ, IYE
3.70% South Africa Index, EZA
3.70% Financial DJ US, IYF
3.69% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
3.68% Microcap Russell, IWC
3.67% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
3.67% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
3.65% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
3.61% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
3.60% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
3.59% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
3.56% EAFE Index, EFA
3.54% Latin Am 40, ILF
3.52% Emerging Markets, EEM
3.50% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
3.50% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
3.47% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
3.44% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
3.43% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
3.42% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
3.40% Russia MV, RSX
3.37% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
3.35% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
3.34% United Kingdom Index, EWU
3.33% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
3.33% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
3.31% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
3.29% Singapore Index, EWS
3.29% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
3.29% MidCap Russell, IWR
3.27% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
3.27% Global 100, IOO
3.27% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
3.26% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
3.24% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
3.23% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
3.22% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
3.21% India PS, PIN
3.21% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
3.18% REIT Wilshire, RWR
3.16% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
3.16% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
3.13% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
3.05% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
3.03% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
3.00% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
3.00% Materials SPDR, XLB
2.99% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
2.99% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
2.98% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
2.98% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
2.97% Mexico Index, EWW
2.95% Malaysia Index, EWM
2.94% Value VIPERs, VTV
2.93% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
2.92% Austria Index, EWO
2.88% Growth VIPERs, VUG
2.88% Networking, IGN
2.87% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
2.87% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
2.87% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
2.85% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
2.83% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
2.82% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
2.81% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
2.77% Japan Index, EWJ
2.77% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
2.74% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
2.73% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
2.72% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
2.72% India Earnings WTree, EPI
2.67% Dividend SPDR, SDY
2.66% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
2.64% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
2.62% Technology DJ US, IYW
2.59% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
2.59% Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.57% China 25 iS, FXI
2.56% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
2.56% Technology SPDR, XLK
2.55% Switzerland Index, EWL
2.44% Dividend International, PID
2.40% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
2.31% Hong Kong Index, EWH
2.31% Health Care SPDR, XLV
2.26% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
2.17% Utilities SPDR, XLU
2.07% Canada Index, EWC
1.98% Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.81% Taiwan Index, EWT
1.77% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
1.23% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.50% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.36% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.20% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.16% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.14% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.31% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.32% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.38% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.43% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.45% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.49% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.97% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-1.12% Bond, Corp, LQD
-2.36% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
