Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) remains bearish. The EFA/SPY Ratio broke down below 6-year lows.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,185.90) fell 12.72 points or 1.06% on Thursday, September 8, 2011. SPX rose above the highs of the previous 2 trading days in the morning before reversing and closing near the low of the day.

As of Wednesday 9/7/11, SPX had recovered a bit more than a 61.8% Fibonacci fraction of its losses from the intraday extreme high of 1230.71 set on 8/31/11.

Longer-term, SPX fell below 11-month lows on 8/9/11 and remains bearishly below falling 50- and 200-day SMAs.

Minor reversals lure short-term traders into trying to trade a bounce. Minor price corrections against the trend are normal and expected, of course. But playing minor counter trend bounces is risky. The mood can switch from “risk on” to “risk off” overnight, leaving the too-clever trader suddenly holding the bag.

We keep in mind that the dominant trend for the stock market remains persistently bearish. That is the bias. In a bear market, surprises come to the downside.

Typically, there is no safe place to hide in a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market. Even those stocks that have held up relatively well through most of the Bear Market eventually succumb to the relentless tide of selling.
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Includes Top Ten ETFs and Major Trend Relative Strength Rankings.
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Stock Market Indicators

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 9/6/11. Absolute price fell further below 50- and 200-day SMAs on 9/6/11.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) remains bearish. The EEM/SPY Ratio has been in a downtrend since peaking on 10/14/10. EEM/SPY broke down below 6-month lows on 8/25/11, remains below its 50- and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price has been weak since 5/2/11, broke down below 13-month lows on 8/8/11 , and remains below falling 50- and 200-day SMAs.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) remains bearish. The EFA/SPY Ratio broke down below 6-year lows on 9/8/11. Absolute price has been weak since 5/2/11 and broke down below 12-month lows on 9/6/11. Both the EFA/SPY Ratio and the EFA price remain below falling 50- and 200-day SMAs.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below the lows of the previous 5 weeks on 9/7/11, confirming a minor downtrend. Longer term, OEX/SPX fell below 28-year lows on 5/26/11, confirming a bearish major trend.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains bearish for the major trend. IWM/SPY fell below 11-month lows on 8/22/11, remains below its 50- and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price has been weak since 5/2/11, broke down below 13-month lows on 8/8/11, and remains below falling 50- and 200-day SMAs.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains bearish for the major trend. MDY/SPY fell below 11-month lows on 8/8/11, confirming a bearish major trend. Both the MDY/SPY Ratio and the MDY price remain below 50- and 200-day SMAs.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 38.7% Bulls versus 37.6% Bears as of 9/7/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear Ratio was 1.03, down from 1.12 the previous week. The Bull/Bear Ratio is now nearly 1 standard deviation below the 20-year average. When advisors turn this cautious, stocks usually have further to fall. The 20-year median is 1.56 and the mean is 1.64.

VIX Fear Index rose to 37.00 on 9/6/11, up from 30.16 on 8/31/11. VIX hit 48.00 on 8/8/11, its highest level in 14 months, since 5/21/10. It could be possible for VIX to rise much higher: VIX was 89.53 on 10/24/08 during the financial crisis. Options players tend to grow more fearful as stock prices decline, and the trend of stock prices is down. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed below their closing price lows of June, 2011.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,185.90) fell 12.72 points or 1.06% on Thursday, September 8, 2011.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1258.07, low of 6/16/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1234.56, low of 8/3/11
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1230.71, high of 8/31/11

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1140.13, low of 9/6/2010
1101.54, low of 8/9/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) rose above the highs of the previous 2 years on 9/6/11, confirming a major uptrend. Although minor price consolidations and corrections are to be expected in bullish price trends, the dominant trend remains bullish. Support 112.58, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 116.92, and 123.15.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) remains bearish. JNK/LQD fell below 2-year lows on 8/10/11, and the recent recovery attempt lacks momentum.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below 11-month lows on 9/6/11. TIP/IEF has been weak since peaking on 4/8/11 and remains below 3 key SMAs, of 20, 50, and 200 days. This means fixed-income investors have been choosing the unprotected 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF) over the inflation-protected TIPs. Fixed-income investors are not worried about inflation.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above the highs of the previous 8 weeks and rose above a 4-month Triangle boundary line on 9/6/11. Support 21.24 ,21.24, and 20.84. Resistance 21.74, 21.86, and 22.21.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below the lows of the previous 6 trading days on 9/6/11, suggesting a minor downtrend within a larger downtrend. On 8/9/11, DBA traded below 8-month lows, confirming a long-term downtrend.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price rose to the upper end of its recent trading range on 9/8/11 but reversed to close lower. Oil fell below the lows of the previous 2 years on 8/9/11, confirming a major downtrend. Support 32.60, 31.45, 30.31, 26.28, 22.74. Resistance 35.00, 35.14, 39.25, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) recovered most of the previous day’s steep loss on 9/8/11. Gold rose above all-time highs intraday on 9/6/11 but reversed to close lower on the day, possibly suggesting a minor correction. Although minor price consolidations and corrections are to be expected in any trend, the dominant trend remains persistently bullish. In a world of too much debt, weak currencies, and self-serving politicians running amok, investors around the globe seek the safety of gold as the only forever-true money. Support: 174.45, 165.88, 159.68, 156.11, 154.10, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/ Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above 5-week highs on 9/7/11, confirming a minor rally attempt for the short term. GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, confirming a bearish major trend for the long term. Absolute price of GDX is bullish, just not as bullish as GLD; investors prefer Gold over Gold Miners.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) recovered most of the previous 2 days’ steep loss on 9/8/11. Silver rose above 3-month highs on 8/22/11, confirming a medium-term price uptrend. Support 39.21, 38.05, 36.04, 35.29, 34.02, and 31.97. Resistance: 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) has been mostly weak since peaking on 4/28/11. This means investors prefer Gold over Silver.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJC ) fell further below 50- and 200-day SMAs on 9/6 /11 and fell below the lows of the previous 8 months on 8/10/11. Weakness in Copper suggests doubts about the economic outlook, while strength in Copper suggests confidence. Support 52.81, 51.30, 50.59, and 49.00. Resistance: 54.94, 56.64, 57.48, 59.06, 60.04, and 61.69.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
4.08% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
2.58% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
3.05% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
2.58% , CSCO , CISCO SYSTEMS
2.35% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
1.68% , NCR , NCR
0.98% , HES , AMERADA HESS
1.52% , SWY , SAFEWAY
6.10% , YHOO , YAHOO
1.76% , QLGC , QLOGIC
2.04% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
0.74% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
0.86% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
0.85% , MSFT , MICROSOFT
2.56% , HANS , Hansen Natural, HANS
0.28% , VFC , VF
0.75% , USB , US BANCORP
0.97% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
0.38% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
0.07% , MO , ALTRIA, MO
0.31% , HYG , Bond High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.83% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
0.21% , UTH , Utilities H, UTH
0.91% , GIS , GENERAL MILLS
0.14% , CMCSA , COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A
0.52% , KO , COCA COLA
1.11% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
0.43% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
0.30% , PG , PROCTER & GAMBLE
1.01% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
0.81% , KFT , Kraft Foods Inc.
0.46% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
1.84% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.74% , SWH , Software H, SWH
-1.29% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
-2.48% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.78% , IGN , Networking, IGN
-9.81% , PLL , PALL
-1.32% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-0.82% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
-2.29% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.38% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.76% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-5.90% , PKI , PERKINELMER
-2.63% , LEG , LEGGETT & PLATT
-0.96% , PMR , Retail, PMR
-1.87% , IWN , Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-3.73% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-1.34% , RSP , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.45% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.45% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-2.05% , VWO , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-3.29% , ORCL , ORACLE
-0.99% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
-1.25% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.50% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
-0.82% , JKD , LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
-0.63% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
-1.35% , VCR , Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
-4.12% , LVLT , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-1.78% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
-1.24% , BMS , BEMIS
-1.29% , CINF , CINCINNATI FIN
-1.01% , IYY , LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
-1.84% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-4.21% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.67% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.70% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.98% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
0.90% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.60% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.49% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.34% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.31% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.03% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.02% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.01% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.00% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.05% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.06% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.09% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.26% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.38% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.39% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.39% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.40% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.44% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.46% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.50% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.55% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.57% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.66% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.67% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.68% Canada Index, EWC
-0.69% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.69% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.72% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.74% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.77% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.78% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.78% Networking, IGN
-0.80% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.80% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.83% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.85% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.87% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.87% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.90% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.92% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.94% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.98% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.01% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.02% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-1.03% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-1.03% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.03% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.04% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.05% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.06% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.08% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.09% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.12% Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.13% Energy Global, IXC
-1.13% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.15% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-1.15% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-1.16% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-1.16% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.16% MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.16% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-1.17% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.19% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.19% Belgium Index, EWK
-1.20% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.21% Dividend International, PID
-1.22% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.22% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.25% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.25% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.26% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.29% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-1.30% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.32% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.32% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.32% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.34% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.34% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.34% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.36% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.38% Global 100, IOO
-1.38% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.40% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.44% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.45% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.51% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.57% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.58% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.63% Spain Index, EWP
-1.66% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-1.67% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.70% Singapore Index, EWS
-1.70% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.72% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.72% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.72% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.75% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.78% Russia MV, RSX
-1.80% South Africa Index, EZA
-1.81% Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.83% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.83% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-1.84% India PS, PIN
-1.87% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.87% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.89% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.90% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-1.90% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-1.92% Water Resources, PHO
-1.92% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.95% Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.98% EAFE Index, EFA
-2.00% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-2.01% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-2.05% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-2.06% Italy Index, EWI
-2.07% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-2.07% Netherlands Index, EWN
-2.08% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-2.14% Australia Index, EWA
-2.17% Financial SPDR, XLF
-2.17% Sweden Index, EWD
-2.18% European VIPERs, VGK
-2.22% Emerging Markets, EEM
-2.25% Austria Index, EWO
-2.29% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-2.30% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-2.35% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-2.38% China 25 iS, FXI
-2.48% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-2.49% Indonesia MV, IDX
-2.51% Switzerland Index, EWL
-2.51% France Index, EWQ
-2.74% South Korea Index, EWY
-2.89% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-3.34% Germany Index, EWG