The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,906.13, down 1.15%) remains in a downtrend. On Friday, SPX fell below its closing price lows of the previous 4 months and fell further below its declining 50-day SMA, now at 1,972.27.
NYSE total volume rose 6% to a level 41% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at -337, has been running below its peaks above +800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Stock market sentiment indicators have been at excessive, multiyear high levels of bullishness (which is bearish), bearish momentum divergences have been accumulating, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution. Historically, September and October have been the seasonally weakest months of the year for more than a century.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 9/18/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs. Both Averages entered downside corrections since making new highs on 9/18/14, however.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 10/9/14 and remains systematically bullish. The absolute price of QQQ rose above its highs of the previous 13 years 9/18/14 and remains systematically bullish.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/1/14. BKF/SPY crossed below its 50-day SMA on 9/10/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Longer term, BKF/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time over the past 4 years.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/1/14. EEM/SPY has been systematically neutral most of the time since making a low on 3/13/14. Longer term, EEM/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time since making a high on 10/14/10.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 10 years on 10/10/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 12 months on 9/23/14 and remains systematically bullish. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been weak since it peaked at 264 on 7/1/14.
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest level in more than 2 years on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. The rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA on 8/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 21.66, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 9/22/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downtrend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 8/29/14, thereby giving a systematically bearish signal.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell to its lowest price level in 18 months on 10/9/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Long term, USO has been in a neutral/sideways trend since bottoming at 22.74 on 2/19/09. Support 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.62, 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 10 months on 10/7/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. GDX/GLD has been systematically neutral most of the time since it bottomed on 12/6/13.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 17.74, 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/2/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. The trend of SLV/GLD has pointed down most of the time since it peaked on 4/28/11, and Silver continues to underperform Gold.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/2/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Long term, JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
6.51% , LLL , L-3 COMMS HLDGS
2.56% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
0.50% , VPU , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
1.23% , PG , PROCTER & GAMBLE
1.11% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
0.53% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
0.88% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
2.30% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
2.34% , WAG , WALGREEN
1.02% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
1.72% , AVP , AVON
1.09% , HUM , HUMANA
0.55% , BMS , BEMIS
1.58% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
1.58% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
0.74% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
1.79% , SPLS , STAPLES
0.74% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
0.68% , BCR , C R BARD
0.65% , DIS , WALT DISNEY
0.65% , CVS , CVS
0.67% , TE , TECO ENERGY
0.53% , RTN , RAYTHEON
0.37% , VDC , Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
0.55% , WMT , WAL MART STORES
0.86% , DLX , DELUXE
0.48% , PFE , PFIZER
0.68% , CI , CIGNA
1.79% , TJX , TJX
0.75% , MO , ALTRIA, MO
0.16% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
0.08% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
0.45% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-12.26% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
-9.16% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
-8.22% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
-7.16% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
-8.36% , XLNX , XILINX
-7.96% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-7.13% , TXN.O , TEXAS INSTRUMENT
-5.00% , IGN , Networking, IGN
-6.89% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-7.58% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
-9.30% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
-6.40% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
-8.01% , TER , TERADYNE
-5.09% , INTC , INTEL
-4.80% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
-4.73% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
-5.95% , NVDA , NVIDIA
-5.46% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
-4.38% , ALTR , ALTERA
-4.89% , LLTC , LINEAR TECH
-2.17% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
-4.83% , FAST , Fastenal Company
-4.73% , SNPS , Synopsys Inc
-6.96% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
-10.30% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
-3.88% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
-4.98% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
-1.58% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-2.33% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
-3.80% , UNP , UNION PACIFIC
-1.86% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-6.14% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
-4.99% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.11% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.99% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.50% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.48% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.47% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.44% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.39% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.29% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.27% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.22% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.13% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.12% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.10% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.08% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.07% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.07% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.05% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.04% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.05% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.11% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.11% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.13% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.14% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.22% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.30% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.35% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.49% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.62% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.65% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.67% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.68% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.73% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.74% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.76% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.79% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.81% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.81% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.88% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.90% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.91% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.93% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.94% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.95% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.97% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-1.00% , Water Resources, PHO
-1.00% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.05% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-1.05% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-1.07% , India PS, PIN
-1.08% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-1.10% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-1.11% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.14% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.16% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.16% , Global 100, IOO
-1.18% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.19% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.19% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-1.21% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-1.22% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-1.22% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.24% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.24% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.26% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.26% , Sweden Index, EWD
-1.27% , Belgium Index, EWK
-1.32% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.33% , France Index, EWQ
-1.33% , Energy DJ, IYE
-1.35% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.35% , European VIPERs, VGK
-1.36% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.38% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.38% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.40% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.41% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.42% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-1.43% , Japan Index, EWJ
-1.45% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.47% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.48% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.48% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-1.48% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-1.49% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.50% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.50% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-1.51% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.52% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-1.53% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.53% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.55% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.57% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.57% , Russia MV, RSX
-1.58% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.62% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.62% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-1.63% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-1.64% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.64% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-1.66% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.68% , Austria Index, EWO
-1.69% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.69% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.75% , China 25 iS, FXI
-1.76% , Dividend International, PID
-1.76% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.79% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.79% , Mexico Index, EWW
-1.81% , Singapore Index, EWS
-1.82% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.87% , Energy Global, IXC
-1.88% , Canada Index, EWC
-1.95% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.96% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.98% , South Korea Index, EWY
-1.98% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-2.02% , Germany Index, EWG
-2.04% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-2.04% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-2.10% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-2.17% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-2.27% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-2.27% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-2.42% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-2.42% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-2.50% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-2.53% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-2.56% , South Africa Index, EZA
-2.56% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-2.75% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.89% , Australia Index, EWA
-2.92% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-3.00% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-3.10% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-3.36% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-3.41% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-3.54% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-4.38% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-5.00% , Networking, IGN
-6.89% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-7.87% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
2019.26, high of 9/19/2014
1972.27, 50-day SMA
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1905.23, 200-day SMA
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1902.17, high of 5/13/2014
1897.28, high of 4/4/2014
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
