September 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Early Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

There is no real feature in overnight/early morning trading today. Gold is lower. Crude oil is firmer, stock indexes are weaker and Treasuries are also weaker early. The U.S. dollar is firmer early today.

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U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS

On tap for today is the ISCS store sales index, housing starts, the producer price index, and Redbook retail sales.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The stock indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading. Bulls still have some near-term technical momentum on their side.

December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and is above the 18-day moving average. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,327.60. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,323.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,333.80. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then more buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at last week’s high of 1,336.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:———— 1,333.20
1st Support:—— 1,330.00
2nd Support:—— 1,325.80
1st Resistance:— 1,337.40
2nd Resistance:— 1,340.60

December Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day today and is above the 18-day moving average. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Monday’s low of 731.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 723.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 740.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at the July high of 742.30. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER RUSSELL 2000:

Pivot:———— 735.60
1st Support:—— 731.20
2nd Support:—— 726.60
1st Resistance:— 740.20
2nd Resistance:— 744.60

December Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday’s low of 11,612 and then more stops just below support at 11,600. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 11,680 and then more buy stops just above resistance at last week’s high of 11,704. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and is above the 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish for today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:

Pivot:———— 11,647
1st Support:—— 11,614
2nd Support:—— 11,579
1st Resistance:— 11,682
2nd Resistance:— 11,715

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

Prices are weaker in early trading in Chicago. Bulls are fading and need to show power very soon.

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and is above the 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 110 10/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of 110 18/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 110 3/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at Monday’s low of 109 25/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:

Pivot:———– 110 7/32
1st Support:—– 109 27/32
2nd Support:—– 109 14/32
1st Resistance:– 110 20/32
2nd Resistance:– 111 even

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 106.27.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at Monday’s high of 107.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish for today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and below the 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 106.22.5, and then more sell stops just below support at Monday’s low of 106.17.5. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:

Pivot:———— 106.26.0
1st Support:—— 106.20.0
2nd Support:—— 106.12.0
1st Resistance:— 107.02.0
2nd Resistance:— 107.08.0