China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ, closed below its lowest closing prices of the previous 3 years.
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) rose to a new high, thereby confirming its preexisting major uptrend.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 7/25/12, reconfirming its major downtrend and suggesting disinflation or deflation.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,337.89) fell 0.42 points or 0.03% on Wednesday. SPX closed below a 7-week trendline but held above its 50-day SMA for a second consecutive trading day. The close was near the open and the range was narrow, so the day’s action formed a Spinning Top Candlestick and an Inside Day, both suggesting a loss of momentum, hesitation, indecision, and consolidation.
For days immediately ahead the short-term outlook looks indecisive. The fundamental outlook for the economy, sales, and earnings of companies, appears mostly bleak, but that means many are now expecting quantitative easing to be announced after the Fed’s FOMC meeting in one week, on 8/1/12. But will it be enough? Will it be discounted ahead of time? Speculators can have fun trying to figure out that over the next week.
Longer term, weighing a wide variety of indicators, and projecting out weeks and months ahead, underlying market conditions suggest that downside risk still may exceed upside potential for the stock market. Choosing safety over risk appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative investors.
For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
click here.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.
Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 5 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Investors Intelligence Sentiment has shifted substantially toward bullish confidence since May. According to the Investors Intelligence weekly survey of stock market newsletter advisors reported on 7/25/12, there were 40.4% Bulls and 26.6% Bears. Advisors consistently have been demonstrating above-average bullish sentiment since 1/4/12.
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1389.07, Fibonacci 78.6% of April-June 2012 range
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1362.93, Fibonacci 61.8% of April-June 2012 range
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1344.56, Fibonacci 50% of April-June 2012 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1332.79 50-day SMA
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1326.19, Fibonacci 38.2% of April-June 2012 range
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1316.14, 200-day SMA
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1303.47, Fibonacci 23.6% of April-June 2012 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011-12 range
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011-12 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 7/25/12, thereby turning systematically neutral from bearish: above its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with its 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 4/17/12. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 159.20, 162.18, 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
13.55% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
12.19% , ALTR , ALTERA
11.63% , UIS , UNISYS
1.78% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
7.18% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
2.65% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
3.34% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
0.77% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
8.76% , TMO , THERMO ELECTRON
3.48% , HES , AMERADA HESS
2.81% , WPI , WATSON PHARM
3.40% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
5.56% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
3.34% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
4.71% , JCP , JC PENNEY
4.87% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
1.96% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
4.54% , ACE , ACE
0.91% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
3.17% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
3.32% , LLTC , LINEAR TECH
1.23% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
1.44% , CAT , CATERPILLAR
3.14% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
1.01% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
0.47% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
2.78% , BA , BOEING
0.26% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
0.18% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
1.98% , LLL , L-3 COMMS HLDGS
2.29% , CIEN.O , CIENA
2.00% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
2.00% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-19.95% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
-12.06% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
-28.77% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-16.45% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
-25.02% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
-15.61% , SVU , SUPERVALU
-9.70% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-7.15% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
-7.71% , GLW , CORNING
-4.78% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
-4.72% , AET , AETNA
-9.91% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-4.41% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
-2.99% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
-4.43% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
-5.35% , MAS , MASCO
-2.21% , GD , GENERAL DYNAMICS
-4.42% , NBR , NABORS
-2.24% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
-3.70% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
-1.07% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-4.32% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
-2.15% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
-0.16% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
-2.56% , COP , CONOCOPHILLIPS
-1.37% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
-4.39% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
-2.54% , WOR , WORTHINGTON INDS
-3.08% , CI , CIGNA
-0.19% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-0.97% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-2.82% , TROW , T ROWE PRICE GP
-0.24% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.38% Networking, IGN
2.26% Italy Index, EWI
2.09% South Africa Index, EZA
2.00% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.78% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.40% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.39% Germany Index, EWG
1.38% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.24% Russia MV, RSX
1.23% Australia Index, EWA
1.18% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.18% Sweden Index, EWD
1.08% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.06% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.06% France Index, EWQ
1.02% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.01% Belgium Index, EWK
0.99% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.99% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.97% European VIPERs, VGK
0.95% Spain Index, EWP
0.92% Austria Index, EWO
0.91% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.86% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.83% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.78% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.74% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.70% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.69% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.67% Canada Index, EWC
0.64% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.62% China 25 iS, FXI
0.56% Energy Global, IXC
0.54% EAFE Index, EFA
0.52% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.52% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.49% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.48% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.48% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.44% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.43% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.41% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.39% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.39% South Korea Index, EWY
0.39% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.39% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.38% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.38% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.35% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.33% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.32% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.31% Singapore Index, EWS
0.30% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.30% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.29% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.28% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.28% Global 100, IOO
0.27% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.26% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.23% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.23% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.22% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.22% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.22% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.21% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.20% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.19% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.18% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.18% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.15% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.15% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.14% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.14% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.14% Dividend International, PID
0.14% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.13% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.13% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.11% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.08% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.08% Energy DJ, IYE
0.07% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.07% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.06% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.06% Japan Index, EWJ
0.05% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.05% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.04% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.04% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.04% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.04% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.03% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.03% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.03% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.01% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.00% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.01% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.03% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.03% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.04% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.05% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.05% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.05% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.06% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.08% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.08% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.09% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.10% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.11% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.11% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.12% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.15% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.16% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.16% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.18% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.18% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.19% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.21% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.21% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.24% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.25% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.37% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.39% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.42% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.43% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.43% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.45% Water Resources, PHO
-0.46% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.49% India PS, PIN
-0.59% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.59% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.67% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.75% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.97% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.01% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.01% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.06% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.07% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
