Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
U.S. stock market price indexes opened moderately higher but fell back to the minus side by 10:45 a.m. ET. Prices recovered after that intraday low to close above the previous close, above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, but modestly below the open.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,697.48) rose 0.39%, after declining on each of the previous three days. On Wednesday, 8/7/13, SPX closed below the closes of the previous 4 trading days. And on Tuesday, 8/6/13, SPX broke down below a 6-week uptrend line rising from the intraday low 1,560.33 on 6/24/13, and SPX remains below that trendline.
NYSE total volume rose 5% a level 6% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line and the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline on the NYSE rose moderately after 3 days down. In July and so far in August, both failed to rise above their May highs; therefore, both remain bearishly divergent relative to the price indexes. In addition, the Net Number of New Highs-Lows remains far below its May high, thereby diverging bearishly as well.
Popular price momentum oscillators based on SPX, such as RSI(14) and MACD(12,26,9), failed to rise above their May highs in recent weeks to confirm new highs by the price indexes. So, both oscillators remain bearishly divergent.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 8/1/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new price highs.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) remains systematically neutral, although its trend appears to be changing in a more bullish direction. QQQ/SPY rose above its highest levels of the past 6 months on 8/5/13.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 8/7/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 20-month low on 6/24/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 19-month low on 6/24/13, confirming its bearish major trend.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, EFA/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 10 years on 7/9/13, and EFA/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 11/27/2007. Absolute price peaked at 64.14 on 5/22/13 and fell to a 6-month low on 6/24/13, but price has recovered most of that loss since June.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) remains systematically bearish. OEF/SPY has been in a down trend since 9/24/12. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains systematically bullish. IWM/SPY has been rising since 5/1/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 6/27/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains systematically bullish. MDY/SPY has been rising since 6/21/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price remains systematically bearish. Momentum indicators RSI and MACD based on the TLT price recently were extremely oversold and now show bullish divergence compared to price itself. Long term, the 33-year trend is still indicating rising bond prices. Support 105.00, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 109.69, 110.80, 114.77, 118.94, 121.32, 124.26, 126.08, 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price remains systematically bearish. Momentum indicators RSI and MACD based on the IEF price recently were extremely oversold and now show bullish divergence compared to price itself. Long term, the 33-year trend is still indicating rising prices. Support 100.86, 100.45, 100.31, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 102.86, 107.62, 108.24, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has been systematically bullish since 5/3/13, when the ratio crossed above its 50-day SMA. Absolute price of JNK has been in a rising trend since 6/24/13 but remains below its high of 41.95 set on 5/8/13.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 7/16/13, when it crossed above the 50-day SMA. Absolute price of TIP peaked at 123.44 on 12/6/12 and remains systematically bearish.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/16/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). UUP rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/1/13. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the past 3 years on 8/2/13 and remains systematically bearish. Price has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price remains in a systematically bullish trend above its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Support 36.22, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price trend turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 7/30/13 when price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/28/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. GLD has been trending down since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 122.73, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 130.14, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price trend remains systematically bearish. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/27/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The trend has been bearish since price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 19.89, 20.53, 22.65, 23.70, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 7/30/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish. SLV has underperformed GLD since SLV price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, JJC fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/24/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. The JJC price trend has been bearish since price peaked at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
10.71% , HAR , Harman International
6.72% , JCP , JC PENNEY
2.15% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
8.18% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
8.91% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
1.81% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
4.14% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
8.69% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
3.25% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
1.77% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
4.09% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.65% , EXC , EXELON CORP
1.82% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
4.08% , FNP , Fifth & Pacific Cos., FNP
4.20% , LOW , LOWES
1.97% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
1.10% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
3.20% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.52% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
5.24% , X , US STEEL CORP
5.15% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
3.03% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
1.13% , TE , TECO ENERGY
4.66% , FCX , FREEPRT MCMORAN STK B
1.34% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
1.61% , GCI , GANNETT
2.34% , EPI , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.80% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
3.10% , TLAB , TELLABS
1.04% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
2.58% , MSFT , MICROSOFT
2.18% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
2.16% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.57% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
-5.58% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
-4.27% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
-4.46% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-3.95% , MBI , MBIA
-0.30% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-1.17% , WMB , WILLIAMS
-0.53% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
-5.94% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-1.63% , COST , COSTCO WHOLESAL
-1.51% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
-0.30% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
-1.01% , WY , WEYERHAEUSER
-0.61% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
-0.46% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.85% , JPM , J P MORGAN CHASE
-1.38% , AZO , AUTOZONE
-0.64% , TGT , TARGET
-0.09% , LLY , ELI LILLY
-0.71% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
-0.62% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.11% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
-0.16% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
-0.58% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-0.29% , MCD , MCDONALDS
-0.10% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
-0.12% , AN , AUTONATION
-0.21% , CVX , CHEVRONTEXACO
-0.93% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-0.58% , CHD , Church & Dwight
-0.07% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
-0.08% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
-0.06% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
4.14% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
4.09% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
4.00% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
3.20% , Brazil Index, EWZ
3.03% , Latin Am 40, ILF
2.87% , Australia Index, EWA
2.81% , South Africa Index, EZA
2.69% , India PS, PIN
2.42% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
2.35% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
2.34% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
2.34% , Belgium Index, EWK
2.23% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
2.18% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
2.16% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
2.15% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
2.14% , Canada Index, EWC
2.12% , Mexico Index, EWW
2.10% , Italy Index, EWI
2.03% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.97% , Spain Index, EWP
1.92% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
1.91% , Indonesia MV, IDX
1.84% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.84% , China 25 iS, FXI
1.81% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.77% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.72% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
1.61% , Austria Index, EWO
1.53% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.48% , Materials SPDR, XLB
1.40% , Malaysia Index, EWM
1.39% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.29% , Netherlands Index, EWN
1.26% , Sweden Index, EWD
1.19% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.14% , Taiwan Index, EWT
1.12% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.12% , Singapore Index, EWS
1.10% , Germany Index, EWG
1.08% , France Index, EWQ
1.07% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
1.07% , European VIPERs, VGK
1.04% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.03% , Energy Global, IXC
0.98% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.95% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.95% , Dividend International, PID
0.95% , Networking, IGN
0.93% , Russia MV, RSX
0.92% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.91% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.82% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.73% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.73% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.67% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.67% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.65% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.60% , Global 100, IOO
0.60% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.59% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.59% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.59% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.58% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.58% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.57% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.57% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.57% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.56% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.55% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.55% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.54% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.54% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.53% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.53% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.51% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.51% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.50% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.48% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.48% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.48% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.47% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.46% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.45% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.43% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.42% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.41% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.41% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.41% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.41% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.40% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.40% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.40% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.39% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.38% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.37% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.36% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.36% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.36% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.36% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.35% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.33% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.31% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.30% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.30% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.28% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.28% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.27% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.27% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.26% , Water Resources, PHO
0.24% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.24% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.23% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.22% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.21% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.20% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.18% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.18% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.17% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.16% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.15% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.14% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.11% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.10% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.09% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.08% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.07% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.07% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.05% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.04% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.01% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.00% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.00% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.06% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.08% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.11% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.36% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.44% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.46% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.48% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.53% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.62% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1660.03, Fib 78.6% of May-June 2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1651.62, 50-day SMA
1638.72, Fib 61.8% of May-June 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1542.11, 200-day SMA
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
