Stocks Up, Volume Down. Health Care, Financial, and Large Cap stocks are demonstrating relative weakness.

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below its 50-day SMA on 11/5/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 11/5/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral).

Health Care (XLV) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) is systematically neutral. XLV/SPY whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 11/5/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish).

Financial (XLF) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 6 months on 11/5/13and appears to be heading toward a 50/200 SMA systematic bearish crossover signal in weeks ahead.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 11/5/13 by falling back down below its 50-day SMA.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 11/5/13 by rising above its 50-day SMA.

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,767.93, up 0.36%) absolute price opened higher on Monday morning, pulled back, then sprinted upward and above the early high in the final 36 minutes. SPX closed above the open, above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and above the closes of the previous 3 trading days.

NYSE total volume fell 14% to a level 13% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.

The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line and the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE both rose on Monday. Both remain systematically bullish above 50- and 200-day day SMAs. Although on 10/29/13 the Advance-Decline Line rose above previous highs to confirm the higher high for the S&P 500 Composite Stock Price Index, the Up-Down Volume Line failed to rise above its September high, thereby continuing to signal bearish divergence.

Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 have stubbornly remained divergent below previous highs for the year as the S&P 500 rose to higher highs over recent months. Momentum divergences, persistently low trading volume, excessive bullish sentiment, and prospects for continuing dysfunctional political games remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 10/29/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose to its highest level in 11 months on 10/21/13. QQQ/SPY turned systematically bullish on 8/26/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by whipsawing back down below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by whipsawing back down below its 50-day SMA. Long term, the 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 6 weeks on 10/31/13. EFA/SPY has been systematically neutral since 9/3/13 but could easily turn bearish in days ahead. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY underperformed. Absolute price of EFA rose above its 50-day SMA on 9/3/13, thereby turning systematically bullish.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 11/5/13 by falling back down below its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 6 weeks on 11/1/13, thereby confirming a medium-term downtrend. IWM/SPY turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 10/30/13 by falling below its 50-day SMA. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 11/5/13 by rising above its 50-day SMA. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below its 50-day SMA on 11/5/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). The 50-day SMA remains in a weak position below its 200-day SMA. UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/29/13, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. DBA price was in a cyclical bear market for 29 months from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.36 on 8/2/13.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 11/1/13, thereby confirming a medium-term downtrend. Price fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/20/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). Support 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.61, 37.59, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support: 121.85, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 7 years, since 9/5/06.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support 19.88, 18.71, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). SLV underperformed GLD substantially for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 11/5/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
7.66% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
2.04% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
7.01% , AA , ALCOA
1.99% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
4.72% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
0.42% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
3.04% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.82% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
2.77% , SNV , SYNOVUS
1.95% , GPC , GENUINE PARTS
0.49% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
2.85% , KSS , KOHLS
0.52% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
2.29% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
2.27% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
2.99% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
4.30% , SYY , SYSCO
1.25% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
2.33% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
0.64% , VAW , Materials VIPERs, VAW
0.63% , HSIC , Henry Schein Inc
0.42% , IWD , Value 1000 Russell, IWD
2.17% , OXY , OCCIDENTAL
0.95% , DTE , DTE ENERGY
1.09% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
1.11% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
2.28% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
0.97% , PHO , Water Resources, PHO
2.22% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
1.13% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
0.69% , K , KELLOGG
4.38% , X , US STEEL CORP
1.20% , HUM , HUMANA
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-16.41% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
-9.38% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
-7.03% , CS , Credit Suisse Group, CS
-2.85% , NVDA , NVIDIA
-1.28% , DD , DU PONT
-1.41% , DOW , DOW CHEMICAL
-0.48% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
-1.44% , MON , MONSANTO
-1.68% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.97% , CVS , CVS
-0.36% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
-0.47% , LLTC , LINEAR TECH
-0.14% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
-0.16% , D , DOMINION RSCS
-0.26% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
-0.65% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
-0.92% , DB , Deutsche Bank AG, DB
-0.47% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
-0.26% , ETR , ENTERGY
-0.69% , HON , HONEYWELL INTL
-0.06% , AFL , AFLAC
-0.16% , WM , WASTE MANAGEMENT
-0.05% , PFF , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.70% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
3.04% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
2.04% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
2.02% , Austria Index, EWO
1.99% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.44% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.40% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.36% , South Africa Index, EZA
1.36% , Energy DJ, IYE
1.27% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
1.26% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.25% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.25% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.24% , Energy SPDR, XLE
1.20% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.15% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
1.14% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.11% , Latin Am 40, ILF
1.11% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
1.11% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.06% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
1.04% , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.00% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.99% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.98% , India PS, PIN
0.97% , Water Resources, PHO
0.94% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.92% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.91% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.89% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.87% , Italy Index, EWI
0.82% , Energy Global, IXC
0.82% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.82% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.76% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.75% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.74% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.71% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.66% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.65% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.65% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.65% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.65% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.64% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.62% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.60% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.60% , Russia MV, RSX
0.59% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.56% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.56% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.56% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.55% , Germany Index, EWG
0.53% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.52% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.51% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.51% , Spain Index, EWP
0.50% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.49% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.49% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.47% , France Index, EWQ
0.46% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.46% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.46% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.46% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.45% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.45% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.44% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.44% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.44% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.42% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.42% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.42% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.41% , Australia Index, EWA
0.40% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.40% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.39% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.39% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.38% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.37% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.37% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.36% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.35% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.35% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.35% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.35% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.34% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.34% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.34% , Dividend International, PID
0.33% , Global 100, IOO
0.32% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.31% , Canada Index, EWC
0.30% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.28% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.27% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.27% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.23% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.23% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.23% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.21% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.20% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.20% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.19% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.18% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.18% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.17% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.16% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.15% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.15% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.14% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.14% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.13% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.12% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.10% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.10% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.09% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.09% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.08% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.08% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.08% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.08% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.06% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.05% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.05% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.03% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.02% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.04% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.05% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.07% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.07% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.11% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.15% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.17% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.17% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.19% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.26% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.30% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.38% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.43% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.47% , Networking, IGN
-1.09% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.68% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1775.92, high of 10/30/2013

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1752.70, low of 11/1/2013
1740.50, low of 10/23/2013
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1700.54, 50-day SMA
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.62, Fib 38.2% of Jun-Aug 2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1635.00, Fib 50.0% of Jun-Aug 2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1625.19, 200-day SMA
1617.38, Fib 61.8% of Jun-Aug 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1592.29, Fib 78.6% of Jun-Aug 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009