* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *
The U.S. dollar index is stronger again Friday morning and is hovering near this week’s 9.5-month high. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams late Thursday said he is open to winding down the Fed’s bond-buying program, also called quantitative easing. Williams’ remarks echoed similar comments Thursday from Federal Reserve banks of Philadelphia and Dallas presidents. Growing ideas the U.S. Fed will begin to gradually tighten its monetary policy sooner rather than later have given the greenback a major boost recently. The new buzz word for the anticipated Fed monetary action is “tapering”–meaning gradually scaling back the monthly bond purchases by the Fed. The dollar has also been supported by U.S. economic data that, while not robust, has been generally better than economic data coming from most other major industrialized nations. To put it another way, the U.S. currency is presently the least ugly pig in the pen. In overnight news, European Union construction output declined 1.7% in March from February, and was down 7.9% on an annual basis. That is the fifth straight month of a decline in the reading. The weak data put downside price pressure on the Euro currency Friday. The Japanese stock market hit another five-year high Friday, on more yen weakness. Meantime, the Australian dollar hit an 11-month low. Other commodity-linked currencies were weaker, too, including the New Zealand dollar and Canadian dollar. U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey and leading economic indicators.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today and hovering near this week’s all-time high. Not much new. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 1,659.30 and then at 1,675.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,644.20 and then at 1,632.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today and hovering near Thursday’s 12-year high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Thursday’s high of 3,019.00 and then at 3,025.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 2,996.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of 2,982.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today and hovering near this week’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Thursday’s record high of 15,275 and then at 15,300. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 15,200 and then at Wednesday’s low of 15,160. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today and seeing a corrective pullback from Thursday’s strong gains. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 145 18/32 and then at 146 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 145 even and then at 144 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly weaker early today on a corrective pullback from Thursday’s gains. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.17.0 and then at 132.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.09.0 and then at 132.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early U.S. trading and hovering near Wednesday’s 9.5-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 84.220 and then at 84.500. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 83.865 and then at Thursday’s low of 83.570. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bulls and bears are on an overall level near-term technical playing field. In June Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at this week’s high of $95.81 and then at $96.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $94.79 and then at $94.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Markets were mostly firmer in overnight trading. Buying interest in the grain is being limited Friday morning by the stronger U.S. dollar index. Short covering is featured in corn early Friday, while soybeans are seeing some fresh speculative buying as the technical posture in that market is improving. Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt is a main focus for grain traders. Drier and warmer weather has allowed a big chunk of the corn crop to get planted. In fact, this week could show record corn-planting progress when next week’s USDA crop progress reports are released. Wheat trading remains choppy and sideways, but with the bears holding the solid advantage.
