U.S. equity markets are called to open lower after a volatile Asian trade triggered by a possible debt rating cut in Japan and another sign that China is serious about tightening its monetary policy.

Yesterday’s gains were erased overnight before the markets mounted a strong comeback. The activity in Asia indicates that sentiment is shifting toward aversion to risk, however the early morning comeback indicates that traders will be influenced by today’s U.S. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the Consumer Confidence Report.

Treasury futures are once again trading higher because of increased demand for safer assets. Traders leaving equity markets are flocking into the Treasuries, driving down yields. Look for March Treasury Bonds and March Treasury Notes to continue to rally as long as traders prefer to take risk off the table.

February Gold is trading lower. The stronger Dollar is helping to pressure precious metals this morning. New that China is serious about tightening their lending requirements as well as their monetary policy is also encouraging liquidation of speculative positions in precious and industrial metals.

March Crude Oil is under pressure overnight. Demand for safer assets is pressuring commodities and stocks. China showed evidence that it was serious about tightening up excessive lending, this means less demand for speculative assets.

The U.S. Dollar is up sharply overnight after a slew of negative economic events drove traders to the safety of the Greenback.  The Dollar is up against European and Pacific Rim nations while falling to the lower yielding Japanese Yen.

Greater demand for lower-yielding assets is helping to drive up the March Japanese Yen this morning.  Much of the weakness occurred early last night after the S&P debt rating service put a negative outlook on Japan’s AA credit rating.  Talk is circulating that S&P may cut the rating to -AA after expressing concerns about Japan’s ability to gain control of its growing debt levels as well as stave off the deflationary pressures.

The Bank of Japan also voted to keep interest rates unchanged. The BoJ also reiterated its thought that deflation is its number one concern. In the meantime, it raised its deflationary forecast from a predicted drop of 0.8% to 0.5%.

In addition to the debt rating story, the news that China singled out the banks required to raise their reserve ratios for excessive lending while telling others to stop lending are signs that the Chinese government is serious about shoring up its finances and cooling down the economy.

General weakness in higher risk assets is helping to pressure the March Euro. This market is trading weaker overnight but still above last week’s low at 1.4027. A failure at this price could trigger a further decline to 1.3800.  Losses have been limited because of the possibility that Greece’s debt problems may be cured by a better than expected bond issuance.

The March British Pound is trading sharply lower after the U.K. GDP report showed the economy grew slower than expected. The low figure of 0.1% was smaller-than-forecast and showed that the economy narrowly avoided prolonging the recession.
Lower crude oil and gold continue to provide reasons for investors to sell the March Canadian Dollar while threatening to weaken the Canadian economy. Downside momentum indicates that .9303 is the next target. Recent action by the Bank of Canada to provide stimulus to the economy is also helping to weaken the Canadian Dollar.

Contact Us:
Local: 312-896-3930
Toll Free: 800-971-2440

DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and, as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The impact of seasonal and geopolitical events is already factored into market prices. Prices in the underlying cash or physical markets do not necessarily move in tandem with futures and options prices. In no event should the content of this correspondence be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Brewer Futures Group, LLC, Brewer Investment Group, LLC, or their subsidiaries and affiliates that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Loss-limiting strategies such as stop loss orders may not be effective because market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Likewise, strategies using combinations of options and/or futures positions such as “spread” or “straddle” trades may be just as risky as simple long and short positions. Past results are no indication of future performance.

Information provided in this correspondence is intended solely for informational purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.