Again, not to be repetitive, but solid fundamental news does little to inspire the market. A year or so ago, the economic data out of China had the market in a tailspin. “The global economic sky is falling,” the market said. Today, China reports data that demonstrates it has recovered economically and what does the market do? It flutters about. Perhaps, I was correct yesterday when I said,
- Tomorrow, the market will absorb news from China. Could the upswing today be a desire to get ahead of the news from China? Is the market expecting good things tomorrow? Is the market looking toward the fundamentals, once again?
Yeh, rereading that inspires me. Maybe the market is just a hit ahead of the curve and today is not about China; rather it is about Intel. If so, take a breather, Market. Intel has to make the transition from the PC to mobile devices and then it will be fine.
Speaking of stupid … Okay, I wasn’t, but I wanted to be speaking of stupid because I came across an article from the breathless media today that strikes me as incredibly stupid. Once again, I am reminded that some in the financial world are not the brightest bulbs in the array of lights.
- Doug Casey, chairman of Casey Research, professional investor says, “I think the U.S. government should default on the national debt,” pre-empting his statement with the admission that it may sound outrageous and too radical.
Geez … Ya think it sounds “outrageous and too radical?” Perhaps it also sounds a bit stupid for a professional investor and the head of a market research firm.
Again, speaking of stupid, and this time I am, I also came across a brilliant article on TraderPlanet. It fits perfectly into my sometimes belligerent attitude toward the cultural meme of the investing and trading world – the discussion around trading and investing has to be complex. Sarah Potter’s article, “Does Trading Make You Feel Stupid?”is worth the read, so here is the link.
http://www.traderplanet.com/articles/view/163117-does-trading-make-you-feel-stupid/
As I read the article, I remembered a reader who wrote to me to express his contempt for my commentary on the gold market. He said that my understanding of the gold market was so na?ve that it was comical. He said that, I am sure, because I write simply about that “complex” market. At the time, I wrote that nothing but speculation kept the price of gold high – fear of inflation, a weak economy, a weak dollar, etc. I suggested gold would fall from its lofty height of $2,000 per ounce as soon as the global economy showed signs of strengthening. I said it simply and with clarity. The price of gold this morning is $1691.
Folks, understanding the trading and investing world does not require a PhD. In fact, all it requires is a commitment to gathering information and then sorting through it in context. For example, in the current context, the following information is quite helpful in understanding the direction of the global economy and the market in 2013.
- The International Energy Agency has increased its 2013 oil consumption outlook by 240,000 bpd to 90.8M bpd. The IEA cited an expected rise in demand from a recovering Chinese economy as a main reason for the new forecast, which comes as OPEC, and Saudi Arabia in particular, cuts production.
- General Electric Co reported a better-than-expected 7.5 percent rise in fourth quarter profit and a sharp increase in its backlog of equipment orders. GE, the largest U.S. conglomerate, notched strong earnings growth at units that make jet engines and equipment used in oil and gas production. The order backlog, watched by investors as an important indicator of future sales growth, hit a record high $210 billion in the fourth quarter.
Well, that felt good. I guess this week in the market built up some tension in me. I feel better now.
Trade in the day; Invest in your life …
