* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *
U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early electronic trading, while European stock markets were weaker Tuesday as key economic data is awaited. It is a busy week of major economic data worldwide, despite the U.S. Independence holiday on Thursday, which will find many Americans taking much of the week off. The U.S. jobs report is out Friday morning, while the European Central Bank and Bank of England monthly meetings are on Thursday. Asian stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. The OECD reported Tuesday that inflation in the industrialized countries rose slightly in May but remains well under control. The annual inflation ate in May was 1.5% versus 1.3% in April. A report from the European Union Tuesday corroborated the OECD data, as Euro zone manufacturing goods prices fell for the third straight month in May, at down 0.3%. The lack of inflationary pressures worldwide is one factor that works in the favor of those central banks wanting to keep their very easy money policies going a bit longer, before starting to wind them down. Reports early this week say that consumer demand for physical gold, especially from Asia, is on the upswing. There are also reports that with the start of the new quarter on Monday, institutional investment demand for gold has picked up. U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the ISM New York report on business, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, domestic auto sales, and the IBD/TIPP economic outlook index.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer again early today. Bulls are regaining near-term momentum, but still have work to do to suggest an uptrend can be re-established. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 1,620.30 and then at 1,625.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,600.00 and then at Monday’s low of 1,593.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today. Bulls are working to regain upside momentum, but have more work to do in the near term to suggest prices can re-establish an uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Monday’s high of 2,946.75 and then at 2,956.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,918.50 and then at 2,900.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls are regaining some upside momentum, but have more work to do to suggest prices can sustain a trend higher. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 14,955 and then at Monday’s high of 15,005. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Monday’s low of 14,880 and then at 14,850. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 136 11/32 and then at 136 23/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 135 26/32 and then at 135 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today on short covering. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 126.29.5 and then at 127.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 126.16.5 and then at 126.08.0 Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 83.595 and then at 83.750. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 83.170 and then at 83.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bulls are gaining upside near-term technical momentum. In August Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the June high of $99.21 and then at $100.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $97.78 and then at $97.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Markets were higher in overnight trading on short covering. Near-term supplies of corn and soybeans are still tight, as reflected in cash basis levels. But USDA expects large corn and soybean crops to be harvested this fall, which is keeping a lid on grain market rallies. Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt remains benign at present. It’s very likely going to take a weather market scare in the Corn Belt in the coming weeks to jump-start a significant rally in the grain markets.
