The Commodity Specialist view – A Key Reversal Week in early September, which we highlighted in a previous Update, has provided a bearish backdrop to the technical picture of Sugar. It remains the marker of the end of a previous strong bull run and there is still bear risk.

    The early Sep Key Reversal Week prompted us to adopt a bearish stance.
    Subsequent price action has been quite choppy, but we currently seek a bear resolution from this.
    We have been viewing any s/term strength as temporary – this is likely to be the case while resistance from the bear channel top around 24.00 and 24.68 19-Oct high stays effective.
    Next downside target is the 38.2% level. Also note lower support from the bear channel base around 20.00 currently, close to the 19.73 2006 high on the continuation chart.
    In the Commodity Specialist Guide recently-suggested shorts around 24.00, with initial stops at 25.00, are seeking 21.00 for partial profits with stops then reducing to cost. 20.00 is favoured as a further profit target.

[For the complete and illustrated version of this and future Updates be sure to sign up at]