Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD
VP, Applied Technology & Research
We continue last week’s discussion with a closer look at the rainfall outlook for the start of this year’s Indian Monsoon. As spot sugar has made a dramatic retreat down to the low 16 cent range (May2010), we are now looking for opportunities for a potential short term rise, which will be limited by the longer-range expectations for a better crop in India. The monsoon is anticipated to get off to a very favorable start (see map above), providing a base for a better outlook for supply in the physical market. The chart below is not an official monsoon forecast, but it shows the all-India weekly year-on-year precipitation outlook for this year, as compared to the 2009 season. We see that the y/y precip outlook is largely favorable, and this is shaping our seasonal expectations for sugar supply coming out of India for the current and subsequent crop year.
Please contact Michael Ferrari (mferrari at wtrends dot com) if you have any questions.
