July housing starts were weaker than expected. This took a bit off the recovery rally in stocks. Overnight, Asian markets stabilized, German investor confidence rose, and UK inflation was a bit higher than expected. The EZ figures put some pressure on the Dollar. Crude oil has turned lower on the day, and grains were lower overnight. Gold is still slightly higher, but it’s hard to see it holding up if oil sells off. PPI was a non-event, and there are no other releases due today.
Sept. S&P: Momentum buy day; holding yesterday’s low at 975.50 is key for the bulls. A bearish MACD crossover is trouble longer term.
Sept. NASDAQ: As Spoos, a momentum buy day. Last week’s low at 1585.75 is now resistance.
Sept. Treasury Bonds: Couldn’t find any strength from the weak housing starts. It’s a momentum sell short day; that may weigh on them. The lat July high at 11908.5 is now support.
Sept. Japanese Yen: look to buy a break. Support is around 10485; a move below 10423 would turn it neutral.
Sept Euro Currency: Momentum buy day. Rally objectives are 14154 then 14187. 14048 is trendline support.
Dec. Gold: Momentum buy day. Rally objectives are 944 then 948.
Sept. Silver: Bearish MACD crossover, 1381 is a 50% retracement of the rally, so breaking that would be bearish. Momentum is at buy signal levels; that may hold it up today.
Sept. Copper: Bearish MACD crossover; watch important support around 270.
Dec. Cocoa: 2725 is a 50% retracement of the rally off the late June low. Closing below there should add to the pressure.
Oct. Sugar: Two dojis, breakout mode today. Watch yesterday’s low at 2135 for a downside breakout point.
Dec. Coffee: Bearish MACD crossover. Broke Fib retracement support at 129, watch trendline support at 12740. 12605 is the last line of support.
Oct. Crude Oil: Can’t rally on a momentum buy signal, weak day. 6747 is Fibonacci retracement support.
Oct. Live Cattle: Watch important support around 8730.
Nov. Soybeans: Bearish MACD crossover, testing trendline support at 944-2.
Dec. Corn: Bearish MACD crossover coming? Watch support at the late July low of 314-6.
This is the morning update to my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
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