The Empire State manufacturing survey came in lower than expected, and PPI was higher than expected; which paints a poor picture of the economy. PPI is not a great inflation gauge, but it may keep a floor in Treasury yields. Austria nationalized their 6th largest bank in an effort to shore up the European banking system. This pressured the Euro, which was already down after a weak ZEW survey in Germany, indicating lower investor confidence. The ZEW report also noted that no rate changes are expected for the EZ in 2010. Wells Fargo announced that they will repay their TARP funds; they’re the last bank to do so. Industrial production is out at 8:15, and we get the API’s version of crude inventories this afternoon. It’s also Day on of the FOMC meeting; which means nothing for today.
March S&P: Trading lower on a Sell Short Day; another failure to stay over 1107. 1100.50 then 1096.75 are downside objectives.
March NASDAQ: Also failing at the highs? 1796.50 is the first downside objective.
March T Bonds: Breakout setup. Yesterday’s high and low are the first breakout points. I’m also watching resistance at 117-31 (trend line) and 117-05 support (Friday’s low).
March Yen: Downside breakout from yesterday’s inside day. It broke trend line support at 1.1188; the next downside point to watch is Friday’s low of 1.1141.
March EuroFX: Yesterday’s inside day gave today a directional move. The 10/2 low of 1.1480 is the next downside objective.
March British Pound: It has formed a little channel within the range of 12/9; a move outside of there should see follow through. 1.6150 is key support; there’s also support at 1.6186.
March Canadian Dollar: Yesterday’s narrow range day (NR7) gives today a breakout setup. Yesterday’s low at 978 is the first downside breakout point; trend line support at 9367 (also last week’s low of 9369) is key support.
Feb Gold: Yesterday’s inside day could yield a directional move. Today’s action is bearish (so far); a break under Friday’s low at 1110.20 could lead to follow through selling.
March Silver: Same kind of setup as gold, but I think the 12/9 low at 1713.5 is the downside reference price. 1690 would be the first downside target.
March Copper: Sell short day; couldn’t reach Fib resistance at 317.83. It has since broken support around 312.50; the 12/10 swing low at 308.15 is the next downside target.
March Cocoa: It’s looking more and more like the top is in. Last week’s low at 3227 is the next downside target.
March Sugar: Will today be the Sell Short Day? This is a powerful market, so I’d be careful with the short side.
March Coffee: Will today be another case of an “exit breakout buys” day tuning into a Sell Short Day? 144.20 is the first objective for a selloff. The double top around 147.90 would be the next upside objective.
March Cotton: Opened lower last night; is still trying to test the old yearly high at 75.74. A close over there could give the rally a push.
Jan Crude Oil: Yesterday’s doji could give today a directional move. Look for a move to develop if we break out of yesterday’s range.
Jan Natural Gas: Follow on buying on a Sell day; clearing Fib resistance at 5.349 is good for the bulls.
Feb Live Cattle: Sell Short Day; yesterday’s high at 84.05 is the reference price. 83.97 is the midpoint of the recent decline.
Jan Soybeans: Sell Short Day; 1050 is a pivot point.
Jan Soymeal: Sell Short Day; last week’s high at 315.40 is the SS reference price.
March Wheat: Another Sell Short Day following a breakout buy day? 539 is a pivot today; trading under there should encourage a break to the recent low at 530-0.
March Corn: Sell Short Day; 400 is the first support / downside objective.
This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
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