CPI was tame, taking away the angst about yesterday’s PPI. Housing starts cam in as expected. UK unemployment was better than expected, Euro zone PMI was better than expected. There’s some easing of fears over Greek credit. Reuters is reporting that global banking regulators will give banks more time to comply with stricter capital rules. Early implementation would likely have meant hurried share sales to raise capital. A commissioner from the China Banking Regulatory Commission said at a forum in Beijing that China’s banks will face risks from bad loans and lending concentration to certain industries and big customers for a “long period of time.” Foreign investment in China jumped 32% in November – does it smell like a bubble yet?
Later today we get the DOE crude inventory report at 9:30 and the FOMC meeting announcement at 1:15. I don’t expect any substantive changes in the FOMC statement; much of the recent optimism is over the Nov. employment report; that’s not enough to change policy.
March S&P: Trading higher on a Taylor Buy day. It’s bullish over 1107; Monday’s high at 1113 is resistance.
March NASDAQ: Another Buiy day. The 1813.75 swing high is the rally objective; there’s trend line support at 1793.75.
March T Bonds: Will they go anywhere ahead of the FOMC announcement? I’m treating today as a breakout setup; first breakout points are 118-00 up and 117-06 down.
March Dollar Index: I’d view today as a Sell Short day; use the 11/3 high at 77.27 as the reference point.
March Yen: Buy day setup; yesterday’s low of 1.1123 is the reference price. There’s trend line resistance at 1.1248.
March Euro FX: Buy day; the 12/11 low at 1.4581 is resistance.
March British Pound: Upside breakout of a triangle; reached the first objective at1.16368.
Feb Gold: Rallying on a Sell Short day; yesterday’s high of 1130.00 is the reference price, so no sale yet. 1140 is the next rally objective if it keeps going.
March Silver: Yesterday’s doji keeps the breakout signal in play. Use the 12/11 high of 17.64 as the upside breakout point.
March Copper: Another breakout setup; cleared Fib resistance at 317.83.
March Cocoa: Buy day rally; the 12/11 high at 3437 is the rally objective.
March Sugar: By the Taylor count it should be a Sell Short day, but ROC was on a Buy day signal. Yesterday’s high at 25.72 is resistance; the contract high is 26.25.
March Coffee: Breaking out over the 147.90 double top; holding over there is key for the bulls.
March Cotton: Buy day rally; the Nov. high at 75.74 is resistance.
Jan Crude Oil: Today is an “exit breakout buys” day; will it turn into a Sell short day? I’d watch the 12/10 high at 71.39 as resistance. The $70 area is the objective for a break.
Jan Natural Gas: Sell Short day; watch 5.437 trend line support. This should be a break to buy.
Feb Live Cattle: Sell short day; yesterday’s high at 85.27 is the SS reference price.
Feb. Lean Hogs: Another “exit breakout buys” day; the 11/27 high at 68.07 is resistance.
Jan. Soybeans: Yesterday’s doji could yield a breakout move today. 10.50 is support; yesterday’s high at 1068-4 is resistance.
March Wheat: Buy day; will it form a higher low here? 534 is support; 541 is resistance.
March Corn: Breakout setup (ID/NR7). 410-0 is resistance, the4 overnight high at 404-2 is the downside breakout point. Breakout objectives are 416 up (trend line resistance) and 400 (Fib, psychological support).
This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
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