Friday’s moves are seeing follow through. Chinese officials said they would keep a “moderately loose” economic policy and “proactive” policy moves to assure continued economic growth. Elsewhere, the BIS said the big credit expansion in China this year has likely damaged credit quality and will constrain monetary policy – will increase the need for loan loss reserves. The Chinese Academy or Social Sciences reported overcapacity problems in 21 of 24 industries in Q2; up from 19 in Q1. The Japanese government is waiving interest income from corporate bonds held by foreigners; this is giving the Yen a boost. The London Times is reporting that Dubai Holdings is having financial problems. There isn’t any economic news out today.
Stock Indices: I expect a “Z” day today – consolidation day to buy breaks, sell rallies after Friday’s volatility. It should be a Taylor Sell day, but it looks like it’d be a stretch to reach much higher.
March T Bonds: Buy day; broken Fib support at 119-24 is the first rally objective.
March Yen: Buy day; 11196 is the first rally objective.
March Euro FX: It broke and is now trading around the late Nov. low of 1.4788.
March British Pound: The 1.6270 area is a triple bottom. Today is the third day with high to low price action; tomorrow should be a Buy day.
March Canadian Dollar: Will the Buy day take hold here? Use Friday’s low at 9436 as the reference point.
Feb Gold: The last spike low was 1135.80 and the mid Nov low at 1131.40 is support. Today is a “cover breakout sales” day; will it turn into a Buy day?
March Silver: The correction continues; 18.00 is support today, then 17.72.
March Copper: An NR4 day then a doji could give a directional move today. Watch Fib support at 314.75.
March Sugar: Buy day; there’s Fib support at 2245.
March Coffee: Today is a cover breakout sales day (could be a buy day); there’s Fib support at 139.67.
March Cotton: There’s trend line support at 73.82; failure to hold could lead to a break to 72.74 Fib support.
Jan Crude Oil: Two doji days. It should be a Buy day, but the break under Fib support at 75.72 is bearish. Friday’s low at 74.85 is the Buy day reference price.
Jan Natural Gas: Strong rally on a Sell day; there’s Fib resistance at 4.861. Clearing that could add to the bullish tone.
Jan Soybeans; I’m still looking for a directional move (ID / NR4 then a doji). Watch 1055-4 and 1023-2 for breakout points.
March Wheat: It’s testing the late Nov low at 552-0 today is a Buy day. Watch Friday’s low at 555-4.
March Corn: Friday’s break under the late Nov low at 390-2 is bearish. Tomorrow should be a Buy day.
This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
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