Last night the PBOC raised Chinese bank reserve requirements by 50 BPs to try to cool their economy and property markets. There were some scary stories about Chinese real estate last night. Bloomberg had a story that the vacancy rate for property in Beijing is around 50%. CB Richard Ellis said it was 22.4% in Q4 2009m but that was before some big buildings got opened. Recently the Shanghai office of the PBOC said that a 10% decline in property prices would lead to a tripling in mortgage delinquencies. In Europe, Q4 GDP in Germany was weaker than expected, and there are press reports questioning German financial support for Greece. SocGen put out a research report a research report predicted the break up of the Euro. The Euro chart is on the verge of a break down. US retail sales for January were robust. At 8:55 we get consumer sentiment, and crude inventories are out at 9:30. US markets are closed Monday for President’s day, and the Chinese New Year begins on Sunday.
March SP: It’s a Sell Short day following yesterday’s breakout rally. 1077 was the reference price for the SS trade; 1066.25 is the first downside objective.
March NASDAQ: Same SS day setup; 1754.50 is the first downside objective.
March Dow: Ditto on the setup. There’s support in the zone from 9977 (trend line) to 9966 (Fib retracement).
March T Bonds: Bullish over 117-08; 117-26 then 118-05 are rally objectives.
March Yen: Lat night it couldn’t clear trend line resistance at 1.1163; it’s now testing trend line support at 1.1071. If it breaks that support there’s not much between there and the 110 area.
March Euro: It’s currently testing the double bottom area. Use 1.3584 as a pivot point today; staying over that could lead to a rally.
March British Pound: Sell day; there was trend line resistance at 1.5709. Below, there’s trend line support at 1.5563 and the recent low was 1.5531.
March Canadian Dollar: By the Taylor Technique it’s a Sell Short day. Watch the old swing high at 9483 as a reference price.
March Aussie Dollar: An ‘exit breakout buys’ day after it couldn’t clear Fib resistance at 8911. 8770 is support.
April Gold: Another ‘exit b.o. buys’ day. The 1084 area is first support, then 1078.
March Silver: Sell short day; it’s bearish under 15.80 Fib resistance. Support is 15.305 then 15.19.
March Copper: It’s an ‘exit breakout buys’ day that’s shaping up as a Sell Short day. 314.40 is a double top. On the downside, 30820 is a pivot point; 301.50 then 298.00 are downside targets.
March Cocoa: Sell Short day; 3029 is the first downside target.
March Sugar: Couldn’t clear Fib resistance at 28.05; there’s support at 26.83 to 26.76.
March Coffee: Breakout setup – NR7 yesterday. 131.30 was the downside breakout point. The first downside objective is 130.30.
March Cotton: Breakout setup; watch for a downside breakout point at 72.26.
March Crude Oil: Sell short day. There’s trend line resistance at 75.24. On the downside, watch 74.05 then 73.33.
March Natural Gas: Sell short day; first support is 5.329.
April Live Cattle: Breakout setup after two doji days; the old high at 91.35 is the downside reference price today.
March Soybeans: Sell Short day; I’m using Tuesday’s high at 944-0 as the reference price. 931 then 928 are support.
March Wheat: After yesterday’s inside day, treat today as a breakout day. 484-6 is the downside breakout point; watch 495 on the upside.
March Corn: Breakout setup (ID/NR7). Yesterday’s low at 359-4 is the downside breakout point.
This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
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