Sovereign fears are increasing again; the German/Greek 10 Year spread is wider this morning. Greece will attempt to sell a new bond next week, should be fun. The Obama administration made more comments about China and the Yuan; there’s talk they may label China a currency manipulator under the 1988 Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness Act. They also said that China is becoming more protectionist against multinationals. I didn’t see any specific news about the Greek situation, but risk appetite is down recently. The UK posted its first budget deficit since they began to keep records in 1993. US jobless claims rose by more than expected last week; the rise was attributed to last week’s weather. PPI came in higher than expected, although its impact was kind of blunted by Wal Mart’s earnings report. Their earnings were soft, and they noted price deflation in food and electronics. Q4 sales were down 1.6% ex-food, that’s a weak number. We get L.E.I. and the Philly Fed survey at 9 AM, then crude inventories at 10 AM. Crude inventories are expected to be +1.8 mln. barrels last week.
March SP: Breakout setup (NR7 yesterday). Watch the 1103.00 swing high up and yesterday’s low at 1092.50 down.
March NASDAQ: Another B.O. setup. Watch 1805 down and 1816 up.
March T Bonds: Buy day after regaining the old swing low at 116-23.117-09 is the first rally objective.
March Yen: Buy day; held Fib support at 1.0987.
March Euro: Testing the recent low at 1.3531.
March British Pound: Broke trend line support at 1.5587; the recent low at 1.5531 is the next downside target.
March Canadian Dollar: Breakout setup (ID/NR7) Watch Fib support at 9527 down and 9574 up.
April Gold: Yesterday’s doji could give a directional move today. Watch 1100 down and 1113.40 up.
March Silver: Doji yesterday. Regaining 16.00 is important for the bulls.
March Copper: Breakout setup (NR4 yesterday). Watch the overnight low at 318.00 as a downside breakout point.
May Cocoa: Buy day, use Fib support at 3082 as the Buy day reference price.
May Sugar: It’s a ‘cover breakout sales’ day, can it turn into a Buy day? The reference price is 25.46; the last low at 24.88 is support. 26.10 would be the first rally objective.
May Coffee: Breakout setup; yesterday’s high at 135.65 is the upside breakout price to watch.
May Cotton: Breakout setup; use Tuesday’s high at 75.74 up and yesterday’s low at 74.76 as breakout reference prices.
April Crude Oil: Breakout setup (NR7 and doji yesterday). Watch for a breakout move after the inventory report at 10 AM.
April Live Cattle: Breakout setup (ID/NR7 and doji). I’d now use the overnight high at 92.40 as the upside breakout point and 91.82 down.
April Lean hogs: Coiling up, watch trend line resistance at 69.37.
March Soybeans: Yesterday’s inside day could give a directional move today. There’s Fib support at 946 and 957 up.
March Bean Oil: Breakout setup; watch the overnight low at 38.50 down and Tuesday’s high at 39.02 up as breakout points.
March Wheat: Inside day yesterday = directional move today? Watch the 490 for support and 500 for resistance.
March Corn: Could be a Buy day; has to hold Fib support at 358. Yesterday’s low at 359-4 is the reference price.
This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
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