Yesterday’s discount rate hike was out of left field.  The fact that they raised isn’t really the surprise, but the timing was.  They made the announcement in conjunction with the normal money supply release, and I would guess they picked to do it precisely because the market was closed, to limit the impact of knee jerk reactions.  The DR is really a symbolic rate, and the move was technical, not really the start of tightening.  Bernanke will have his Humphrey Hawkins testimony to Congress next week to explain himself. (Although I think they call it something different now).
This hike is the start of the winding down of the emergency liquidity, although it may also mean that tightening is coming sooner rather than later. This morning’s CPI report was much more benign than yesterday’s scary PPI.  There’s a Cattle on Feed report at 2 PM.

March SP:  Sell short day, but it reached the first downside objective at 1092.50 (Weds. low).  Staying over 1100 is bullish.
March NASDAQ:  Sell Short day; 1100 is support.
March T Bonds:  I’m looking for a Buy day, but it’s noncommittal so far.  Staying under 117 keeps the pressure on.  There has been better Buy day moves in the 5 and 10 year T Notes.
March Yen:  An Oops buy, holding over yesterday’s low at 1.0893 is key.
March Euro:  another Oops buy, yesterday’s low was 1.3496.
March British Pound:  A ‘gap and go’ as it opened below yesterday’s low of 1.5487 and the last swing low at 1.5531.  1.5267 is Fib support on the weekly chart.
March Canadian Dollar:  Will this be another Oops buy?  Watch yesterday’s low at 9523.  There’s Fib resistance at 9558.
April Gold:  Holding 1100 is bullish; there’s resistance at 1113.40.
March Silver:  It’s bullish over 16.00; the first rally objective is 16.20.
May Cocoa:  Breakout setup, I’m going to watch Fib resistance at 3119 for an upside breakout point.
May Sugar:  A doji yesterday; it’s bearish under Fib resistance in 26.07 area.  25.347 is first support.
May Coffee:  Sell day (Power buy?) today; yesterday’s high was 137.35.
April Crude Oil:  Today is an ‘exit breakout buys day’; it’s bullish over the old swing high at 78.54.  Yesterday’s high at 79.65 is resistance.
April Natural Gas:  Testing the last swing low at 5.056; I’d use that as the reference price for a Buy day.
April Lean Hogs:  Oops sale today?  Yesterday’s high was 70.55.
March Soybeans:  oops buy?  Watch yesterday’s low at 942-0.
March Wheat:  Another Oops buy setup; yesterday’s low was 483-0.
March Corn:  Buy day; yesterday’s low was 355-0. There’s resistance at 358; the first rally objective is 361.

This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.

The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.


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