The January NFP report was a mixed bag. January’s payrolls came in as expected, but there was a big downward revision to December’s NFP. The unemployment rate fell by 0.4%; but the birth/death model shenanigans make this statistic much less reliable. So overall, I’d say it was good enough that there wouldn’t be a quick nosedive, but not good enough to offset the rise in risk aversion. Concerns about sovereign debt problems in Europe continue to weigh on the markets; raising fears that the economic recovery is stalling. Last year many were thinking that the economy would start to stall in February as stimulus was withdrawn or started to lose its effect; it’s starting to look like this thesis has merit. G-7 meets this weekend; it will be interesting to see if there’s any discussion about China and the Yuan. Trade tensions between the US and China are already high, will the Obama Administration continue to ratchet up the pressure?
March SP: Will today turn out to be a Buy day? Yesterday’s low was 1059.25.
March NASDAQ: We’ll get a Buy day rally if the low from 1/29 at 1731.75 holds. Rally objectives are 1751 and 1759.
March Dow: Watch the 1/29 low at 9994; regaining it could give a rally.
March T Bonds: Failed at the 1/29 high of 119-07. 118-10 is support / first downside objective.
March Yen: Good ‘Turtle Soup +1’ sale as it broke back under the 1/27 high of 1.1221.
March Euro: Broke under major Fib support at 1.3735; that’s a pivot point today.
March British Pound: The 1.5718 low from 10/13 is a pivot point today.
March Canadian Dollar: Buy day; the reference price is the low of 9326 from 2/1.
March Australian Dollar: The low of 8665 from 12/23 is the Buy day reference price.
April Gold: Broke under the double bottom around 1074. $1046.60 is Fib retracement support.
March Silver: Buy day setup; watch yesterday’s low at 15.19 as a reference price.
March Cocoa: Decent looking Buy day setup; the down trend gives pause. The 2/2 low at 3040 is key support.
March Coffee: Buy day; use the 2/1 low at 131.20 as the reference price. The first rally objective is 133.00.
March Crude Oil: Double bottom at 72.43, Buy day.
March Natural Gas: Trying to rally after three doji days; 5.581 is trend line resistance.
April Live Cattle: There’s double top at 90.10; it’s also has a breakout setup (ID/NR7).
April Lean Hogs: Still looking for a breakout move.
March Soybeans: Sell day; can rally. 917-0 is first resistance, 925 is next.
March Wheat: 473-0 has been a pivot point for the past week; is today the day they move away?
March Corn: Can sell off if the 355 area continues to be resistance.
This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
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