A good earnings report from Kraft helped to support stocks after yesterday’s losses then late recovery. Debt gets center stage today; there’s a 10 year T Note auction today, and lots of corporate and sovereign debt being auctioned in Europe. BoE member Sentence said it’s time for the BoE to start to think about withdrawing stimulus; this supported the Pound. There were also hawkish comments overnight from Fed member Plosser. In addition to the debt issuance we get the Beige Book report ahead of the FOMC meeting at the end of the month. Crude is lower as yesterday’s API report showed a rise in crude and crude product inventories last week in spite of the recent cold. The EIA releases its report at 9:30.
March SP: Held Fib support at 1128.88 yesterday. Yesterday’s late rally has me thinking this is more of a Sell than a Buy day. Rally resistance is 1138.
March NASDAQ: Trading over support at 1859 and last week’s low of 1865. 1875 is resistance on a rally.
March Dow: Doji yesterday, Sell day rally objective is Monday’s high of 10623.
March T Bonds: Sell short day as Fib resistance at 116-28 held. 115-27 is the downside objective.
March Yen: Sell short day; last week’s high at 1.0964 is a pivot point today.
March Euro: Rallying out of a breakout setup (ID/NR7 yesterday), it cleared the upside breakout point at 1.4555. Fib retracement resistance at 1.4678 is the rally objective.
March British Pound: Rallying out of a breakout setup of sorts yesterday (NR4); cleared last week’s high of 1.6235.
March Canadian Dollar: Buy day; held trend line support at 9620 overnight. 9678 is resistance / rally objective.
Feb Gold: Buy day rally; held support at the 20 day EMA (1125.20). 1141.00 then 1143.70 are rally objectives.
March Silver: Buy day rally; 18.545 is the first rally objective.
March Copper: Buy day ally; held the 20 day EMA at 332.40. Rally objectives are 339 then 342.50.
March Sugar: today should be a Sell day; yesterday’s high at 27.98 would be the upside objective. However, it’s not showing much yet, and 27.34 is important support.
March Coffee: Today has a breakout setup (NR4, about an ID). So far it has held the 142.65 Fib level, that’s the downside breakout point. On the upside I’d use 144.75.
March Cotton: Buy day; yesterday’s inside day complicates it a bit. So far last week’s low at 72.44 has held, and regaining the 73.00 would be bullish.
Feb Crude Oil: Today is a ‘cover breakout sales’ day; will it be a Buy day? The 20 day EMA at 79.52 has provided support. Watch the inventory report at 9:30.
Feb Natural Gas: Today is supposed to be a Sell day, but resistance at 5.605 capped the rally. 5.500 is important support, and taking out yesterday’s low could have them test important fib support at 5.314.
Feb Live Cattle: Buy day; regained the bottom of the channel at 85.27. 85.77 is resistance / first rally objective.
Feb Lean Hogs: Yesterday’s recovery to a doji gives today a Sell day posture. 68.80 is Fib resistance.
March Soybeans: By the Taylor count today is a Buy day; yesterday’s low at 969-0 is the reference price. If that doesn’t hold, the 11/9 low at 955-6 is the next downside objective. The first rally objective is the broken 12/22 low at 992-2.
March Wheat: Should be a Buy day but there’s no bullish action yet. Yesterday’s low at 520-4 would be the reference price, and 537-4 is resistance.
March Corn: By the overnight close they took out the 12/9 low at 379. The 11/2 low at 372-4 is the next support. Today could be a Buy day, but I’m not wild about trying to catch the falling knife. I’ll look elsewhere for opportunities.
This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
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