Q4 GDP in China rose by 10.7% – stronger than expected. It’s good news for their economy, but it raises the pressure on the PBOC to raise rates. Euro Zone PMI was weaker in January, more evidence their economy is losing momentum. The Greece fiscal mess continues to weigh on the EZ. This news pushed the Dollar Index to a one month high. In the US, jobless claims were higher than expected; later we get the Philly Fed survey and Leading Economic Indicators at 9 AM, natty gas inventories at 9:30 and crude inventories at 10 AM. We’re in the meat of earnings season; I think people will start to look for firms to increase revenue through increased business, not the cost cutting that plumped up earnings last year.
March SP: Buy day, but it already recovered a lot yesterday. 1136.25 is a pivot point today.
March NASDAQ: Buy day; same deal as the Spoos. 1870.63 is the pivot here.
March Dow: 10520 is Fib support; 10577 is resistance.
March T Bonds: Sell day; watch trend line support at 117-24.
March Dollar Index: Trying to take out the lat major high of 78.770 from 12/22.
March Yen: Breakout setup; yesterday’s low of 1.0935 was the downside breakout point. 1.0883 is the first downside objective.
March Euro: Boy, no one likes the Euro. It might be oversold, but that’s not enough to interest me in buying. Yesterday’s low at 1.4078 is the Buy day reference price; 1.3735 is a downside Fib target on the weekly target.
March British Pound: Selling off from a breakout setup; 1.6140 was the first downside target.
March Canadian Dollar: It’s a ‘cover breakout sales’ day; looks like it’s becoming a Buy day. Yesterday’s low at 9531 is the Buy day reference price, and 9542 is Fib retracement support.
Feb Gold: Same thing as the C$ – a ‘cover br4eakout sales. Yesterday’s low at 1106.80 is the Buy day reference price, and 1100 is psychological support.
March Silver: Buy day setup, it needs to get back over yesterday’s low of 17.805; the 17.80 area is a ‘common number’ – has been support or resistance a few times. 17.845 is Fib retracement support.
March Copper: Buy day; there’s trend line support at 334.50. 340.50 is first resistance.
March Cocoa: Breakout day rally is getting started; yesterday’s high at 3468 is the next upside breakout point.
March Sugar: Strong market; it could get a directional rally after the doji yesterday. The last low at 28.95 is support.
March Coffee: Today is a ‘cover breakout sales’ day; I might wait for a test of yesterday’s low at 138.45 to buy, or wait for it to take out the overnight high at 139.95.
March Crude Oil: Watch for the report at 10 AM Central – directional move to follow? At least expect volatility. The 77.00 area is important support; 78.27 then the 78.50 area are resistance. 78.87 would be my first rally objective. Further support is 76.91 then 76.33.
March Natural Gas: Breakout day; the overnight high and low are the first breakout points to consider. 5.548 is Fib retracement resistance.
Feb Live Cattle: Buy day; yesterday’s low at 86.975 is the reference price, with 86.80 as further support.
Grains: Last year the grains topped around January 15 and fell into the third week in February. Will they follow that pattern this year?
March Soybeans: Buy day? The 11/9 low at 955-6 is the reference price.
March Soymeal: Today is a ‘cover breakout sales’ day. There’s trend line support at 285.80 and resistance at 290.00.
March Bean Oil: I hadn’t looked at it yesterday; there’s trend line resistance that looks like it could get broken today; it comes in at 37.20.
March Corn: Doji yesterday could give a directional move today. Regaining 370 would be bullish.
This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
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