Markets are still digesting Obama’s proposal to rein in banks; there are concerns about the effect it would have on profitability. There’s also talk that it could lead to investment outflows from the US. The proposal has been whacking financial stocks worldwide. Meredith Whitney said it would be bad for banks and customers. There’s a growing belief that China will move to tighten to head off inflation; this held down Asian stocks overnight. Bernanke’s reappointment may be in jeopardy. The reappointment vote was originally scheduled for today; it has been postponed and as of now no date has been set. The uncertainty is bearish for equities. There are no economic reports out today; there’s a Cattle on Feed report out at 2 PM.
March SP: Expect a ‘Z day’ today – consolidation. By the Taylor cycle it’s a Buy day; yesterday’s low was 1110.25.
March NASDAQ: Buy day, use Fib support at 18737 as the reference price.
March T Bonds: Sell short day; major Fib resistance at 118-24 is the reference price.
March Yen: It’s an ‘exit breakout buys’ day, also a Sell day. Monday’s high at 1.1076 was the rally objective. Clearing 111 is key to extending the rally.
March Euro FX: Breakout setup (NR4 and doji). Use the overnight high at 1.4164 as an upside breakout point.
March British Pound: Held trade under Fib support at 1.6140 is bearish.
March Canadian Dollar: Potential breakout setup; yesterday was an NR7. 9542 (old Fib support) is now resistance, the 12/30 low at 9452 is the next downside target.
March Australian Dollar: Buy day; rallying after holding Fib support at 8970.
Feb. Gold: By the Taylor count we’re due for a Buy day rally; yesterday’s late recovery probably took some of that. The 12/30 low at 1086.60 is the next support.
March Silver: Could be a Buy day after to down sessions, but there’s no love for silver. The 12/30 low at 16.765 is the next downside target.
March Copper: it’s bearish under the 1/12 low at 330.50.
March Cocoa: I was suspicious of cocoa yesterday with the weakness is the BP. There’s generally a correlation between cocoa and Cable. 3356 is Fib retracement support.
March Sugar: 2 dojis give today the potential for a directional move. 28.57 is the downside reference price; I’d use the old swing high at 28.95 on the upside.
March Coffee: There’s trend line support at 137.00.
March Crude Oil: Breaking under the old high at 76.33 (12/18) is bearish.
March Natural Gas: A breakout setup Wednesday and a doji yesterday have me looking for a directional move today. 5.677 was Fib resistance; the 1/14 high at 5.769 is the next rally objective.
March Soybeans: Breakout setup (ID/NR7). The first downside breakout point is yesterday’s low of 948-4; the upside reference price is yesterday’s high at 959-4.
March Soymeal: Coiling up – formed a triangle, had an ID and doji yesterday. I’m watching breakout points at 286 down and 290 up.
March wheat: Breakout setup; watch 493 down and 500 up
This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
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