We’ve got the FOMC meeting announcement at 1:15 PM and Pres. Obama’s State of the Union speech tonight, so eyes will be on Washington today. We also have a congressional hearing about the AIG bailout; expect lots of grandstanding and speechifying, but little substance. Overnight, Chinese stocks continued their slump on the ongoing news of tighter credit. Stocks are mixed ahead of the news from DC; risk aversion continues to weigh on things as traders weigh the timing and results of the withdrawal of stimulus. An ECB member talked about potentially starting to withdraw stimulus in 1H of 2010. On the news front we get new home sales at 9 AM; can they avoid the same train wreck numbers that we saw in existing home sales last week? We also get crude inventories at 9:30 (expected to have risen by 900K barrels) and a 5 year T Note auction. Watch Washington today; be ready for moves at 9:30 and 1:15.
March SP: Not much action yet after yesterday’s breakout sale. I’d continue to view last Friday’s low at 1086.25 as a pivot point. 1080.50 is a double bottom
March NASDAQ: Similar pattern; 1789.50 is the pivot here. 1774.25 is important fib support.
March Dow: See above. 10111 is the pivot; the double bottom is at 10054.
March T Bonds: It’s a little wary about Bonds; they continue to be unable to stay over Fib resistance at 118-24. Doji yesterday gives the potential for a directional move today. 118-20 is first resistance; support is at Monday’s low of 118-02.
March Dollar Index: Today is an ‘exit breakout buys’ day looking like a Sell Short day. The 12/22 high at 7877 is the Sell Short day reference price.
March Yen: Sell day; 1.1234 is Fib retracement resistance.
March Euro: It’s playing with fire, testing the recent low at 1.4027. A held trade under there should see follow through.
March British Pound: There’s a little triangle forming. The upper line of the triangle is at 1.6249 and there’s Fib resistance at 1.6263. First support is 1.6167.
March Canadian Dollar: Holding under the 12/30 low at 9452 is bearish; the 12/17 low at 9303 is the next downside target.
March Aussie Dollar: 8970 is important Fib support.
Feb Gold: Still looking for a directional move. 1093.00 is the downside breakout point, with 1086.60 as the first downside target. On the upside watch the overnight high at 1102.10.
March Silver: Bearish under the late Dec double bottom at 16.765. The 10/28/09 low at 16.155 would be the next stop down.
March Copper: Seeing downside follow through; there’s ‘common number’ support around 327.50 (was resistance, now support).
March Cocoa: It’s bearish under Fib support at 3354; watch yesterday’s low at 3312.
March Sugar: Yesterdays inside day and range contraction could give a directional move today. It’s currently testing old high support at 28.2; breaking that targets 28.40.
March Coffee: Watch trend line support at 137.26.
March Crude Oil: It formed a little flag over the past few days; look for a breakout move today. Reference prices are the 74.00 down and 75.40 up.
March Natural Gas: Breaking the 1/12 low at 5.327 would let it test important Fib support at 5.289.
April Live Cattle: Buy day; resistance is at 89.70 then 90.00.
April Hogs: Approaching important support at the 12/22 low of 68.02.
March Soybeans: Sell day, but trading back under 940-6 will be bearish.
March Wheat: Today is a ‘cover breakout sale’ day; holding over 494-4 will help make it a Buy day.
March Corn: It looks like no one likes corn; time for a rally? Regaining the old low at 362-2 might help that.
This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
Copyright © 2009
This feed is for personal, non-commercial use only.
The use of this feed on other websites breaches copyright. If this content is not in your news reader, it makes the page you are viewing an infringement of the copyright. (Digital Fingerprint:
f2ea78dd95959aa32f651cec20a16e23)
