There’s more commodity liquidation going on today; gold and silver are sharply lower, and crude oil broke a significant support point.Grains managed to stay flat overnight.Stocks haven’t found any strength after yesterday’s big selloff.The earnings season is getting started; this reminds traders of the E (or lack thereof) in P/E .The talk about a second stimulus plan is worrisome both for what it says about the economy and its impact on the budget deficit.Crude inventories are out at 9:30. I read yesterday that in every recession in the past 60 years, the yield on the 10 Year T Note has never bottomed before the unemployment rate has topped. If this holds, look for Treasuries to rally intermediate term.
Sept. S&P:Looks weak.Resistance is at the 6/23 low of 884.25, support is at yesterday’s low of 875.25 then 871.I still favor the short side.
Sept. NASDAQ:Broke support at the 6/23 low of 1412; there’s Fibonacci support at 1405.75.Momentum is on a buy signal.
Sept. Dow:This looks like a head and shoulders top.If so, it’s breaking the neckline around 8175.7968 is the first downside objective.
Sept. Treasury Bonds:Broke over last week’s double top around 11909; that should now be support.Next resistance is at 119-31, there’s a Fibonacci retracement objective at 121-02.
Sept. Japanese Yen:Broke over Monday’s high of 10574; 10664 is the next upside objective.
Sept. Euro Currency:It’s testing Monday’s low at 13876, momentum favors more downside.
Sept. British Pound:It’s a breakout day; broke first support at 16092, with 16040 next.
Sept Canadian Dollar:It looks like it’s forming a falling wedge (bullish pattern); the trendlines for it are at 8657 and 8551.
August Gold:Breakout day; already under Monday’s low at 920.30. 915 is a 61.8% retracement level, the 6/23 low at 913.20 is next support.
Sept. Silver:Breakout day; broke trendline support at 1304.5, staying under Monday’s low of 1299.5 will add to the pressure,
Oct. Sugar:Holding Fibonacci support at 1685 and a momentum buy day today.Can rally today, but is there a bearish MACD crossover coming?
Sept. Coffee:The old support around 11750 is now resistance. Is this another falling wedge?MACD could be bottoming.
Dec. Cotton:It’s a momentum buy day; can it overcome bearish outside influences?5800 is key support.
August Crude Oil:Trading under Fibonacci retracement support at 62.33. Watch it at 9:30 when the inventory report is released.
August Natural Gas:Trading under the 5/26 low at 3.388; not yet time to look for a bottom.
August Live Cattle:Momentum buy day; it needs to regain the trendline around 8390.
August Lean Hogs:Breakout day; look at yesterday’s range for breakout points.
Nov. Soybeans:An overnight rally failed; 900 is psychologically important.
This is the morning update to my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
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