After the G8 summit, Russian Finance Minister Kudrin said that the US Dollar is in good shape and it’s too early to start speaking about alternatives.This helped the dollar extend Friday’s gains, and in turn is weighing on commodities and stocks. The NY Fed’s Empire State survey showed a drop in manufacturing last month; this added a bit of pressure to stocks.Treasury TIC flows are out at 8 AM: this is an important measure of overseas holdings of US Treasuries.After the close the USDA releases planting progress and its first rating of this year’s crop.The Dollar should remain the big driver for many commodities for the near future.
September S&P:Breakout day; trading around first support of 929.50, lows from last week at 923 and 921.25 are next.MACD is turning down; will this be the move away from the equilibrium point around 940?
September NASDAQ:Support is at last week’s low of 1466; hold that could keep the bulls alive for now.
Sept Dow:Watch trendline support at 8619.
Sept. Treasury Bonds:Trading over 114-12 resistance; next resistance is 114-24 then 115-00.
Sept. Dollar Index:Bullish; the 8150 area is the decision point.
Sept. Yen:Breakout day, but not tipping its hand yet.There’s trendline support at 10147 then the low of the break at 10125. Upside breakout points are 10215 then 10245.
Sept. Euro Currency: Follow through selling, watch last week’s low at 13792 to the late May low at 13786.
Sept. British Pound:Momentum buy day; held support at 16300.Resistance is 16420 then big resistance at 16460.
Sept. Canadian Dollar:Broke then recovered major Fibonacci support at 8875. Momentums is bullish, but keep a tight leash on long positions.
August Gold:The 930is important Fibonacci support. Momentums is bullish, but buy as a scalp only.Resistance is 945.
July Silver:Broke under last week’s low of 1473.5; momentum suggests short covering.1400 is the next downside target.
July Copper:Breakout day; broke under 235.30 support.There’s trendline support at 23360, watch that level on the close.
October Sugar:Testing the June low at 1605; a close under there is bearish.
December Cotton:Breakout day; under first support at 6038.Watch trendline support at 5933.
July Crude Oil:Lower in a quiet session.7032 is a key level; a break under there might be enough to kill the bull.
July Natural Gas:Breakout day, turning bullish? Watch trendline resistance at 4.005.
November Soybeans:Testing the June low at 1040-2; momentum suggests short covering.A close under 1040 is bearish.
December Soymeal:Breakout day; trading under first support of 327, 323.50 is important.
Dec. Bean Oil:The late May low at 3757 held on Friday; that remains key to preventing a washout.
Dec. Corn:The selloff is probably a bit overdone; look for a rebound.I’d like to sell it; watch the 430 area.410 is support.
Sept. Wheat:602 to 600 is support; look to sell a break under there.
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