In a statement posted on its website over the weekend, the PBOC said it would increase its “exchange rate flexibility”; this is being taken as a sign that China will the Yuan appreciate. It is said that this is to head off criticism of its exchange rate policy that was likely to come up at next weekend’s G-20 meeting. This set off a big move into risk trades; Chinese stocks were up 3%, Europe is up about 1%. It’s also US Dollar negative as it reduces China’s need to accumulate Dollars for its reserve. It’s also a vote of confidence for Europe. There’s no other economic news out today; the FOMC starts a 2 day meeting tomorrow.
Sept S&P: Breakout setup (ID, NR7, doji). Cleared Fib retracement resistance at 1122; I have the next rally objective at 1133.
Sept NASDAQ: Breakout setup (NR7, doji). The first rally objective is 1940.
Sept T Bonds: Breakout setup (NR7). It broke Fib retracement support at 123-03; last week’s low at 122-15 is the next downside target.
Sept Yen: Breakout setup (NR7). There’s trend line support at 1.0944 and Fib retracement support at 1.0938.
Sept Euro: Another breakout setup (NR7). No breakout yet-on the downside watch Friday’s low at 1.2362. There’s also Fib retracement support at 1.2364.
Sept British Pound: Breakout setup (NR7). By the Taylor trading technique cycle it’s a Sell Short day. It’s already had the test and failure of the SS day; now watch Fib support at 1.4791 as the first downside breakout point.
Sept Australian Dollar: Breakout setup (NR7). It gapped higher overnight; I’d use the overnight high at 8772 and low at 8665 as breakout points this morning.
August Gold: Sell Short day, Friday’s high at 1263.70 is the SS day reference price. A break below the 6/8 high at 1254.50 could accelerate the selloff.
July Silver: It should be a Sell Short day, but it’s showing strength so far today. Friday’s high at 19.275 is the SS day reference price.
July Copper: Buy day, the 6/16 high at 304.90 is the next rally objective.
Dec. Cotton: It’s a TTT Buy day, but be careful here. The 78.25-ish area has been a pivot point a few times, and a break below there could lead to a bigger selloff.
August Crude Oil: Sell day, holding over the 6/16 high at 79.17 is bullish. 79.99 is major Fib retracement resistance; it’s a 50% retracement of the May selloff.
Nov. Soybeans: It’s an ‘exit breakout buys’ day, clearing Fib retracement resistance at 936-7 gave the bulls a boost. The 5/12 high at 946-4 is the next rally objective.
Sept Wheat: 2 doji days; will it have a directional move today? Resistance is at Friday’s high of 486-0 and Fib retracement resistance of 487-2. Watch trend line support at 477-7.
This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
