The ADP employment report showed a drop of 20K in payrolls; a bit better than the -50K forecast. There was some good employment news from Japan, a good GDP report from Australia, and bullish economic comments from a PBOC official. At the same time, S&P warned that Asian policy makers risk more asset bubbles and inflation if they keep rates low for ‘too long’. Greece announced a new austerity plan after the EU said they need to tighten their belts further before aid would be considered. Still, hope springs eternal for a bailout for Greece, and this hope is pressuring the Dollar while boosting risk assets. There’s lots of news later today: the ISM Services report is out at 9 AM (exp. +0.5% to 51.0), the EIA report on crude inventories (exp crude +1.0 mln, Gas +700K, Distillates -700K) and the Beige Book at 1 PM.
March SP: Could have a breakout setup today, NR4 yesterday. 1112.75 is important support.
March NASDAQ: Sell Short day; watch for report times.
March Dow: It had an NR7 and doji yesterday; will we get a breakout move today? The 2/22 high at 10434 is the upside reference point.
June T Bonds: With yesterday’s recovery (doji), I’m viewing today as a Sell day. 117-16 then 117-24 are rally objectives.
June Yen: Today is an ‘exit breakout buys’ day; the 2/4 high at 1.1288 is the upside reference price. 1.1244 is the first support.
June Euro: Sell day after yesterday’s big recovery; there’s double top resistance ~1.3685.
June British Pound: Breakout day (ID/NR4). Yesterday’s high at 1.4997 was the upside breakout point. Trade or Fade called 1.5075 the first rally objective, trend line resistance at 1.5115 is next.
June Canadian Dollar: Today is a Sell Short day but there’s no set up for it yet. Yesterday’s high was 9698; the 2/22 high at 9642 is the downside reference price.
June Australian Dollar: Sell Short day; the overnight high at 8963 made a double top. Downside objectives are 8857 (yesterday’s low) and 8833 (Fibonacci retracement).
April Gold: Today is an ‘exit breakout buys’ day; clearing Fib resistance at 1136.80 gives the bulls more life.
May Silver: As with gold, today is an exit b.o. buys day. Clearing the 2/3 high at 16.96 was bullish; the next objective is 17.29.
May Sugar: Will yesterday’s recovery to a doji see follow through strength? 22.82 is resistance; a move back under 21.88 puts the bears back in charge.
May Coffee: Breakout setup again (ID/NR4). I’m watching Monday’s high at 133.05 as an upside breakout point, 130.65 down (Fib retracement).
May Cotton: Buy day; holding support at 81.50 is bullish. 8265 is first resistance, and Monday’s 84.60 high is the rally objective.
April Crude Oil: Sell day; yesterday’s high at 80.95 is the Sell day objective. Power Buy?
April Natural Gas: Breakout setup – NR7 and doji.
April Lean Hogs: Buy day, watch trend line resistance at 73.52.
May Soybeans: Breakout setup – NR7 and doji yesterday. I’m watching the 2/24 high at 969-4 for an upside breakout point, the overnight low at 962-0 down.
May Soymeal: Another breakout setup; this one is more symmetrical. First breakout points to watch are 269.60 up and 266.10 down.
May Wheat: Breakout setup; watch yesterday’s range for breakout reference prices.
May Corn: Yesterday’s doji could give a directional move today. Watch 384 as an upside breakout point.
This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
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