The Dollar is lower and the Euro is higher over optimism about the Irish bank plan. For now it appears that the contagion may not be spreading beyond Greece and Portugal. Euro-zone CPI was higher than expected as well. In the US, the ADP employment report showed a drop of 23K for payrolls in March, lower than the +40K estimated. Later this morning we get the Chicago PMI report at 8:45, factory orders at 9 AM, then crude oil inventories at 9:30. The national PMI manufacturing report is out tomorrow and the March payroll report on Friday.
June SP: Still looking for a directional (breakout) move. 1164.50 is my first downside breakout point.
June NASDAQ: Today is an exit breakout buys day; will we get the Sell Short day? 1956.75 then 1952.75 are downside targets.
June T Bonds: Another exit b.o. buys day; seeing upside follow through. 116-00 is a resistance area; 116-19 is the next rally objective.
June Yen: Cover b.o. sales day; 1.0762 is the reference price for a Buy day rebound.
June Euro: Sell day; 1.3543 is Fib retracement resistance.
June Canadian Dollar: Breakout setup of sorts (NR7). Clearing Fib resistance at 9822 was bullish; as was clearing the 9850 area. 9938 was the last swing high.
June Gold: Cover b.o. sales / Buy day. Clearing Fib resistance at 1110.60 was bullish; 1116.40 is the next objective / resistance.
May Silver: Breakout setup (NR7 / doji). 17.48 was the first upside breakout point; the 3/17 high at 17.60 was the first rally objective, the 3/10 high at 17.655 is next.
May Sugar: Is it too early to be looking for a bottom? 17.21 was first support; then 17.00. A drop under 16.80 could lead to a retest of the low.
May Coffee: Sell Short day. It has tested and held trend line support at 137.85; that’s the key price level for me today.
May Cotton: Buy day; watch trend line resistance at 80.66.
May Crude Oil: Breakout setup (ID/NR7); the first upside breakout point was at Monday’s high of 82.78. Next upside points are highs at 83.36 (3/17) and 83.47 (3/12). Be ready for volatility at 9:30 when the inventory report comes out.
May Natural Gas: Is it trying to turn up? It broke trend line resistance today. By the TTT tomorrow will be the Sell Short day; that may tell us whether a bottom is in.
June Live Cattle: Breakout setup (NR&, doji). Watch the overnight high at 9347 as the upside breakout point and 9250 down.
Grains: The USDA report is called bearish for beans and corn, a bit bullish for wheat (at first glance). Beans are called 10-15 cents lower, corn 3-5 lower, wheat a shade higher.
May Soybeans: Sell Short day; the 977 area is resistance. After trend line support at 969 there’s Fib support at 959-6
May Wheat: Today is an exit b.o. buys day; will it hold together or break in a Sell Short day move? 468-2 is important support.
This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
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