There wasn’t much news overnight, and the beginning of the week will be light on economic releases. There were lots of Chinese officials speaking last night, but not necessarily much to trade off today. PBOC Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan said that the Yuan / Dollar peg is a temporary measure in response to the economic crisis, but gave no timetable for change. PBOC Vice Gov. Su Ning reiterated this, saying that a one time change of the peg wouldn’t solve imbalances. He also made comments about concerns over debt issued by local governments. He also said that the central bank’s effort to cool the property market worked, and that there was no need for further measures. No new news on the Greece front; debt spreads between Germany and the PIIGs are coming in this morning. On Wednesday morning we get a report from the USDA about the size of last years corn and bean crops. They resurveyed the northern states that had harvest delays last fall. Could be interesting.
March SP: Today is an ‘exit breakout buys’ day; will it become a Sell Short day? Friday’s high at 1138.75 is the SS day reference price.
March NASDAQ: Same setup as the SP; Friday’s high was 1889.50.
June T Bonds: Buy day; Friday’s low at 116-16 is the reference price. 116-09 is Fib retracement support.
June Yen: Buy day today; Friday’s low at 1.1038 is the reference price. Broken Fib retracement support at 1.1099 is now resistance.
June Euro: Sell day; regaining resistance at 1.3632 is bullish. Overhead there’s trend line resistance at 1.3714.
June British Pound: Sell day; will an inability to clear Fib resistance at 1.5716 halt the rally?
June Canadian Dollar: 2 doji days could give a breakout (directional) move today:
April Gold: Friday’s inside day could give a breakout move today. I’m watching breakout points at 1139.00 up and 1129.00 down.
May Silver: ‘Exit breakout buys’ day; Friday’s high at 1751.5 would be the reference price for a Sell Short day.
May Cocoa: Exit breakout buys day; the rally stopped at Fib resistance of 2887. A drop below 2834 could lead to a retest of the lows.
May Sugar: Breakout setup (ID/NR7). Friday’s low at 21.63 is the downside breakout point; then there’s support at 21.36 (trend line) and 21.12 (recent low).
May Coffee: Breakout setup (ID/NR7 and doji), but it’s not moving yet. Use Friday’s range for breakout points
May Cotton: Breakout setup; watch the Fib retracement level at 81.54 as the downside breakout point, 82.75 on the upside.
April Crude Oil: Sell day; watch trend line support at 81.14 on weakness.
April Natural Gas: Breakout setup = another reason for a selloff.
April Live Cattle: Still has a breakout signal.
April Lean Hogs: Today is a cover breakout sales day; there could be more downside if 73.05 doesn’t hold.
May Soybeans: A breakout day of sorts (ID and doji). Watch 950 on the upside, 939 on the downside.
May Soymeal: Could be a Buy day, but I’m not interested unless it regains the old low at 259.90.
May Bean Oil: Breakout setup; breakout points are 40.51 (the 3/3 high) and the overnight low at 39.82 down.
May Wheat: May Wheat: Buy day; holding the (for now) double bottom at 492-0 is the key.
May Corn: Buy day; Friday’s low at 375-0 is the reference price.
This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
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