China’s April trade balance showed a big jump in imports. Overall, china’s trade surplus has fallen 79% in the first four months of the year, which takes some pressure off the US-Chinese trade relationship. A report from a Chinese think tank said that China may delay allowing the Yen to strengthen vis a vis the USD because of the European sovereign debt crisis. In Europe, a combination of the announcement of announcement of the Greek debt plan, the reestablishment of the central bank USD swap facility and other Q.E. measures by the ECB have lifted some of the negative tone from the financial markets. All this has strengthened the Euro, PIIG debt spreads and commodities. The recent seizing up in the financial markets likely had central bankers fearing that things were nearing another simmer of 2008, and they took drastic measures to forestall it. To go along with that, German exports showed a big 10.7% jump in exports for May, and Morgan Stanley upgraded European equities to ‘overweight’ to ‘underweight’, citing the policy moves. The ability of the markets to hold on to today’s gains is key to near term direction.
June SP: Breakout setup (ID, range contraction). 1136.38 was Fib retracement resistance/ breakout point. There’s a double top overnight at the session high of 1162.00.
June NASDAQ: Same b.o. setup as the SP. 1933.50 is resistance.
June T Bonds: The inside day gives today a breakout setup. Trade or Fade has 120-06 as the downside breakout point.
June Yen: Inside day; will it be a breakout day? Friday’s low at 1.0727 is the reference point.
June Euro: Oops sale setup today; Friday’s high at 1.2803 is the reference price. Additionally, 1.2811 is Fib retracement support.
June British Pound: Sell day, 1.4998 is Fib retracement resistance.
June Canadian Dollar: Breakout setup (ID, range contraction). 9801 is the next rally objective.
June Gold: Buy day, Friday’s low at 1193.00 is the reference price. 1184.10 is Fib retracement support.
July Silver: It’s an ‘exit breakout buys’ day; will we get the Sell Short day move?
July Copper: Breakout setup (ID, NR4). 326.75 is the first upside objective.
July Cocoa: It’s a cover b.o. sales day, 3131 is the first upside target.
July Sugar: Gapped higher this morning, watch for an Oops sale opportunity. Friday’s high was 13.98.
July Cotton: It looks like it’s putting in a bottom-this was the third time under 80 cents. There’s trend line resistance around 81.60; clearing 82.50 is key for the bulls.
June Crude Oil: Buy day, clearing Fib resistance around 77.50 is key to a bigger rally.
June Natural Gas: Breakout setup; Fib resistance at 4.410 is the next upside target.
Grains: There’s a USDA report out tomorrow morning as 7:30, so keep that in mind.
July Soybeans: Sell day, a Fib retracement level at 970-6 is the next upside target.
July Soymeal: Breakout setup (ID, NR4). Watch the overnight high at 280.80 for an upside breakout point, 278.00 down.
July Wheat: Sell day; Friday’s high at 517-0 is the first rally objective.
July Corn: Sell day; Thursday’s high at 380-0 is the first rally objectiveThis is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
