Kim Jong-Il told North Korean citizens to be ready for war; on the other side the US and South Korea are holding war games. Four Spanish banks are merging; other PIIG banks are lower on concerns about the financial system. LIBOR was higher again today; even CNBC is starting to take note. The Case/Shiller S&P HPI was flat, and we get consumer confidence at 9 AM; it is expected to have risen 1.1 to 59.0 in April. There were lots of markets with breakout setups today, so we shouldn’t be surprised by today’s volatility. Rising geopolitical tensions are not what jittery markets needed, and it’s hard to see what might be a catalyst to improve market sentiment in the short run. I’m reminded of that old saying: “The best cure for low prices is low prices.”
June S&P: Breakout setup (ID, NR7). It broke under support at Friday’s low of 1051.25; Trade or Fade had second support at 1037.
June NASDAQ: Another breakout setup (NR7, doji). Friday’s low at 1765.50 is support.
June Dow: Breakout setup (ID, NR7). Reached the first target at the 5/6 low of 9840; the 2/5 low at 9731 is next.
June T Bonds: Breakout setup (ID, doji), it’s also a Buy day. Friday’s high at 126-01 is first resistance; there’s a major Fib retracement level at 126-25 is next.
June Yen: Buy day, there’s trend line resistance at 1.1207.
June Euro: It’s on a TT buy day, but it’s sure not acting like it. The 5/19 low at 1.2140 is support.
June British Pound: Breakout setup (NR4, doji). The 5/20 low at 1.4227 is the next downside target.
June Canadian Dollar: It’s a Sell Short day; broke under the 2010 low at 9274.
June Australian Dollar: Breakout setup (ID, NR7, doji). Yesterday’s low at 8165 was the downside breakout point; Friday’s low at 8065 was the first target.
June Gold: By the TT today is a Sell day, reached its objective at yesterday’s high of 1197.30. 1181.70 is first support.
July Silver: It’s an ‘exit breakout buys day’, lo0oks like it’s following through with a Sell Short day. 17.465 then Friday’s low at 17.41 are support.
July Copper: Sell Short day, Fib support at 302.58 was the first downside target.
July Cocoa: Today is the fourth bullish (close > open) day, due for a Sell Short day move. The 20 day EMA at 2958 is the next upside target / resistance.
July Sugar: It’s on a TT Buy day signal, but it’s trading poorly. Broke Fib support at 14.78; trend line support at 14.62 is the next downside point to watch.
July Coffee: Breakout setup (ID, NR7, doji), the downside breakout point was at yesterday’s low of 131.60. The 5/20 low at 130.25 is the next downside target.
July Cotton: Sell Short day, the 5/20 low at 81.45 was the first downside target.
July Crude Oil: Breakout setup (ID, NR7, doji), the 5/20 low at 68.85 was the last downside breakout point. The first Trade or Fade target was 67.37; the 7/13/09 low at 66.11 is the next downside point.
July Natural Gas: After five days of bearish action (open > close) can it have a Buy day today? Yesterday’s low was 4.049. It was an NR7 day yesterday, so be careful.
August Live Cattle: Breakout setup (ID, NR7), broke support at the 3/26 low of 89.25.
July Lean Hogs: Another breakout setup (ID, NR7, doji). Fib support at 81.65 was the first downside breakout point; Friday’s low at 80.57 is the3 first downside target.
July Soybeans: Yesterday’s doji = breakout setup trumps the TT Buy day today. For the 9:30 open use the 5/20 low at 931-0 as a pivot point.
July Soymeal: Today is a ‘cover breakout sales’ day, looks like the Buy day may wait until tomorrow. For the 9:30 open use the 5/20 low at 270.80 as a pivot point.
July Bean Oil: Still in the channel.36.91 is the bottom, can it break out down?
July Wheat: It’s on a TT Buy day signal, but it’s trading poorly. Support is at the 5/20 low of 461-2 then the 4/5 low of 460-4.
July Corn: Sell Short day, yesterday was an NR7. There’s Fib retracement support at 363-0.
This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
