Yesterday the St. Louis Fed President Bullard said he thought rates could stay low until 2012. Overnight the Philly fed President Plosser said that the US economy was “on the mend” and that the Fed would “struggle and debate” about the time to start raising rates. The OECD raised its growth estimate for 2010. Jobless claims rose 3K; we’ll also get LEI and the Philly Fed survey at 9 AM. Geithner is speaking to congress about economic reform, starting at 9 AM. I don’t think they’ll be any market moving news out of it, but it could make for some good kabuki theater. Lots of markets are reaching another make or break point, as they retrace their moves of the past month.
Dec. S&P: Still in breakout mode; 1100 is the first breakout area. 1097.50 of the move off last Thursday’s low. 1090 is the first downside target. 1110 would be the first upside breakout point.
Dec. NASDAQ: This could be a buy day, but the action is high to low so far. Yesterday’s low of 1788.75 is the reference point, there’s also support at 1782.50. The breakout setups in the ES and DJ will help dictate the direction.
Dec. Dow: Another breakout setup; the old swing high at 10309 is the first downside breakout point.
Dec. T Bonds: Buy day; 120-18 is support. Resistance is 120-26 (midpoint of yesterday’s range) then 121-03.
Dollar Index: Forming a triangle; also had an ID / NR4 breakout setup today. Watch trend line resistance at 75.61.
Dec. Yen: Breakout setup; held the pivot area around 1.1180. Watch the 11270 area for resistance.
Dec. Euro FX: It’s up! No, it’s down! Today was a sell short day; 1.4836 is fib retracement support.
Dec. British Pound: Broke trend line support at 1.6693 (also Fib support). 1.6600 is support. Setting up for a buy day tomorrow, but MACD is nearing a bearish crossover.
Dec Canadian Dollar: Another currency that could be on the verge of a bigger downturn. 9406 is a 50% retracement of the Nov. rally, it broke trend lien support back up at 9472, and MACD is on the verge of a bearish crossover. Will a TT buy signal save it?
Dec. Gold: 2 doji days; we should get a directional move (eventually). At some point gold bulls should worry if it can’t close over the 1144 area.
Dec. Silver: Another 2 doji market. Key support is the old high at 18.175.
Dec. Copper: When I flipped over to the copper chart I thought I was still on silver-the charts are very similar recently. Watch support at the old high of 306.90.
March Cocoa: A sell short day to take away the bulls fun. 3271 is Fib retracement resistance. 3195 is the first objective for the selloff.
March Sugar: A sell short day after a breakout rally. Broke trend line support at 23.21; 22.56 is Fib retracement support.
March Coffee: Rejected prices over 140; on a sell short signal today. 137.90 is support.
March Cotton: 2 days of coiling around; watch Fib support at 7200.
Jan. Crude Oil: 2 doji days after being unable to clear trend line resistance yesterday. (Read my post here: http://www.futuresinsightblog.com/crude-oil-futures-deal-with-rejection/ ) Watch support around 79.00; they could drop if that’s taken out.
Jan. Natural Gas: Boy, last week’s rally was putting perfume on a pig. Yesterday’s break took out the old low at 4.674; ROC is down to buy signal levels. There is an inventory report out at 9:30.
Feb. Lean Hogs: A breakout setup (range contraction and doji). They’ve already broken the first breakout point at 63.82; there’s also some support at 63.40. 62.82 is the first downside objective.
Grains: I haven’t looked at the report yet, but our grain guys said that soybean and soymeal sales to China were huge in this week’s export sales report.. The grain complex could use some good news; all of them had a bearish day yesterday-failed to take out swing highs.
Jan. Soybeans: Followthrough downside momentum last night; there’s trend line support around 1015. ROC is down to buy signal levels.
March Wheat: Failed at the old high of 593-0; then it took out trend line support at 579-4 overnight. There’s a TT buy signal, but I expect tomorrow may be the buying day. Support is 571-0 and 560-4.
March Corn: Another rejection at the highs (418 and 424-4). 402 to 400 is important support. Corn looks weaker than beans and wheat.
This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
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