Dubai World (a state owned investment fund) said that it’s asking for a credit extension to it can restructure $60 bln. in debt. This is reviving the credit crunch fears, was exacerbated by the US holiday yesterday. The selloff has also been fanned by fears that rallies had gotten overdone and traders’ desire to hold on to profits at the end of the year. With today’s short (and possibly light) trading today; it may take us a few more days to really figure out the implications of the Dubai news. In addition to the losses a Dubai World default would cause (UK banks are especially exposed there); there’s fear that this could be a contagion that could lead to other defaults and heightened risk aversion. There are no reports due for today’s session; markets are closing early today so we overworked brokers can go home early. The Chicago PMI is out on Monday.
Dec. S&P: Today was an “exit breakout buys day”, which often turns into a sell short day. As I commented Wednesday, they never had the upside breakout that other markets did. The selloff tested the 50% retracement of the Nov. rally; that was at 1069. 1082.50 is a double bottom, holding over there on a closing basis keeps hope alive for the bulls.
Dec. NASDAQ: 1732 was the corresponding Fib support level here; last week’s low at 1755 is a pivot level today.
Dec. T Bonds: They’re on a sell short signal; I’d like to wait for a buying opportunity. They roll to March after today.
Dec. Euro FX: Wednesday’s upside breakout over the 1.5062 proved to be a trap; there were a number of support points taken out on the break. I’m watching 14836 for support; 14985 gives control back to the bulls.
Dec. British Pound: As with stocks, this is an example of an SS following a breakout day rally. Breaking last week’s low at 1.6457 was bearish; the double bottom around 1.6250 is next support.
Dec. Canadian Dollar: Lat week’s low at 9317 is critical support.
Feb. Gold: Let’s move over to Feb. with FND coming on Dec. 1131.40 was last week’s low and the 20 day EMA is at 1132.40. Regaining 1166.30 gives the bulls a lift.
March Silver: Silver is awfully weak compared to gold. 18.00 was psychological support and 17.90 was fib support. Getting back over 18.00 would take off some pressure.
March Copper: The 308.50 area is common number support; holding that would be supportive. There’s trend line support at 301.85.
March Sugar: Regained double bottom support at 21.78; there’s trend line resistance at 22.45 today.
Jan Crude Oil: Broke last week’s low of 75.50; 74.34 is a 50% retracement of the Oct. /Nov. rally. It has a breakout setup today (ID/NR4).
Jan. Natural Gas: It’s tuning bullish; I’d consider buying a break over today’s high at 5.206.
Feb. Live Cattle: It’s a sell short day after making a double top at 86.00. 85.27 was support.
Feb. Lean Hogs: Sell short day; Tuesday’s high at 66.37 is now support.
Jan. Soybeans: 1050 is trouble here, with 1022 as Fib support. Resistance will be 1038-4 then 1044.
March Wheat: Opened sharply lower but no follow through; Tuesday’s low at 552 is key support. In fact, I think you could treat this as a breakout setup; use the overnight high and low as breakout points.
March Corn: ROC was giving a sell short signal and 407-5 was Fib resistance. 400 is a psychological pivot area, and 390 is support.
This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
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