Overnight the Australian central bank (RBA) raised interest rates by 25 BP. In addition, NY Fed President Dudley made some dovish comments overnight. He said that US interest rates should stay low for some time, that high unemployment is too high, and that there’s significant slack in the economy. These two pieces of news are the big drivers this morning as traders moved back into risk assets and out of the USD. There were also was a wire report out that a number of countries will start pricing crude oil in a basket of currencies instead of the USD. The UAE and the Saudis denied this, but it adds to the USD’s woes. There are no economic releases today.
Dec. S&P: It’s trading around a Fib retracement resistance level at 1043.38. On a continued rally there’s resistance at the overnight high of 1047.75 then there’s trendline resistance at 1053.25. Support is 1036. Tomorrow will be set up as a momentum sell short day.
Dec. NASDAQ: Has an NR4 breakout setup today. The next upside breakout point would be 1691.50.
Dec. Dow: Followthrough rally today as it took out old low resistance at 9576. There’s trendline resistance at 9672.
Dec. T Bonds: Trade or Fade labeled today a breakout day (doji, range contraction. Friday’s low of 122-05 is the first breakout point, 121-26 is next.
Dec. Yen: Breakout setup; it cleared the first breakout point at 11203. There’s trendline resistance at 11266.
Dec. Euro FX: Breakout setup, it cleared Fib retracement resistance at 14661. I’d look to take profits on longs today; tomorrow will be a momentum sell short day.
Dec. British Pound: it can’t catch a break. It’s unable to regain old low resistance at 16022, and bearish under Fib support of 15945. The next downside target is 15817.
Dec. Canadian Dollar: Broke over last week’s high of 9372; next resistance is the 8/4 high of 9405 then the 9/17 high of 9444. It looks like there’s a bullish MACD crossover coming, but momentum is giving a sell short signal for tomorrow.
Dec. Gold: It broke the 9/17 high of 1025.80 and the 7/15/08 high of 1028.00. On a continuous chart, the high 3/08 high of 1033.90 was a 2o yr. high that was broken today. I’d be cautious up here; momentum is on a sell short signal.
Dec. Silver: It broke Fib retracement resistance at 1672.5. The 9/22 high of 1734.5 is the next objective.
Dec. Copper: It cleared Fib retracement resistance at 273.45, it’s currently testing trendline resistance at 278.27.
March Sugar: It has an ID/NR breakout setup today, breakout points are 2455 and 2363.
Dec. Coffee: Another test of Fib resistance at 131.78, will it get through today? If it can, the next upside target is 133.30. Support is the 129 area.
Nov. Crude Oil: Last week’s high of 71.39 is resistance, then there’s trendline resistance at 71.98 today. Tomorrow is Wednesday-you know what that means, Report Day.
Nov. Natural Gas: Bulls should be cautious today. Momentum is on a sell short signal; it needs to hold over the old highs around 4.990.
Dec. Live Cattle: It appears nothing will save them-they can’t stay over the old low at 8402.
Nov. Soybeans: There was a doji bar yesterday that could yield a directional move today. Resistance is 902.
Dec. Soymeal: It regained the old low at 272.20, rally objectives are 274.40 then 277.00.
Dec. Wheat: A doji yesterday could give a directional move today. 450 is the key resistance area; clearing that could give an objective of 458-2.
Dec. Corn: It’s looking good today as it took out resistance around 350. Now, can it stay over there? Momentum is on a sell short signal.
This is the morning update to my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
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