Stocks are lower, but off overnight lows.  There wasn’t any one factor to the overnight moves.  The news is rife with stories of how badly equities perform in September.  It was reported yesterday that the Chinese government sent a message to 6 world banks that deal in OTC derivatives claiming the right to default on contracts with them.  The government denied these stories, but I wonder if this pressured crude and equities yesterday.  Overnight, Chinese stocks were slightly higher, and the economic news was a mixed bas.  Today at 9 AM we get the July pending home sales (forecast +1.5%). We also get the ISM manufacturing survey for August.  The ISM is forecast to have risen to 50.5; a reading over 50 means the economy is expanding.  Traders will also be watching to see if the expansion is spreading to new sectors; we’ll also parse the inventory numbers and employment.  Recent market jitters have come from ideas that the markets may have moved ahead of the economy; a strong ISM would help assuage those fears a bit.

Sept. S&P:  Regained yesterday’s low at 1013.25; there’s important support at 1007 (a 50% retracement of the past two weeks’ rally).
Sept. NASDAQ:  Support is 1614.88 (the same 50% level) then last Thursday’s low of 1610.50.
Sept. Dow:  Watch support at 9430.
Dec. T Bonds:  The rally stopped at last week’s high of 11931; support is 11908.  Below that, there’s support at 11902 then important trendline support at 11825. The short end of the curve continues to outperform; is it concern over inflation? The Fed likes a steep yield curve for now-the spread helps the banks.
Sept. Dollar Index:  A triangle is forming, and my indicators are neutral.  It should be getting ready to move.
Sept Yen:  Holding over the old 10707 high; momentum suggests a short sale coming up.
Sept. EuroFX:  Another triangle; the downside is at 14286 today, the upside is 14401.  It’s nearing the apex; watch for a directional move soon.
Sept. British Pound:  A doji yesterday could give some directional bias to Cable today.  Last night it turned down from trendline resistance at 16371; watch for a break of yesterday’s low of 16182.
Dec. Gold:  The midpoint of the August trading is 952.80; it appears to be a magnet for gold. Momentum is bullish today; look for prices to advance today. 957 is resistance.
Dec. Silver:  It’s a momentum sell short day for silver; watch for a selloff today.  Support is 1467 then 1455.
Dec. Cocoa:  A doji yesterday could mean a directional move today.  However, momentum is neutral, so it’s hard to discern a direction.
Oct. Sugar:  A momentum sell short day; watch support at the old contract high of 2333.
Dec. Coffee:   A doji and bearish momentum could make this worth selling a downside breakout.  Watch 12075 to 12030 for support.
Dec. Cotton:  A momentum sell short day; the MACD pattern points to a selloff.  I’d like to see a retracement toward yesterday’s high.
Oct. Crude Oil:  A momentum buy day; it has to hold yesterday’s low of 69.13.
Nov. Soybeans:  Not much recovery overnight.  980 is a pivot area today-bullish over, bearish under.
Dec. Soymeal:  Momentum is bullish; it needs to hold Fibonacci retracement support at 294.
Dec. Bean Oil:  Watch trendline support at 3554.

This is the morning update to my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.

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