Stocks are about unchanged. Shanghai was up 1.2% overnight; Europe is slightly lower over concerns about banks. There was a rumor going around yesterday about a bank in trouble; a couple of European names were thrown around. BP announced a huge oil find in the Gulf of Mexico, this is helping European stocks. There’s a lot of second tier news today-the ADP employment report, Q2 productivity, DOE crude inventories, and the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting at 1 PM. Financial markets are trying to divine Friday’s employment report, so we’ll watch ADP, although it isn’t a great predictor for NFP, if I remember correctly. Tomorrow we hear the size of next week’s Treasury auctions; there will be a lot of new paper to take down (again). The ADP report showed a 298K decline in payrolls; weaker than the 250K expected.
Sept S&P: It’s on a momentum buy signal; support is at the overnight low of 992.25. Regaining 1000 aids the bulls.
Sept. NASDAQ: Another momentum buy signal; 1585 is support.
Dec. T Bonds: Continues to trade at the July highs around 120. Momentum indicates it may have a hard time advancing today.
Dollar Index: Yesterday I wrote about the triangle in the DX; I didn’t expect a breakout until Friday. (Read it here: http://www.futuresinsightblog.com/whats-ahead-for-the-us-dollar/).
Sept Japanese Yen: Breakout day, broke over the recent high at 10808. The first Trade or Fade target is 10862, the July highs just over 109 are the next target for a breakout.
Sept. EuroFX: Momentum buy day; it’s holding Fibonacci retracement support at 14184.
Sept. British Pound: Momentum buy day; it regained last week’s low of 16152. The first rally objective was me at 16241; there’s trendline resistance at 16335.
Sept. Canadian Dollar: Momentum is on a buy signal, but it doesn’t look good. Watch trendline support at 9019.
Dec. Gold: It rallied $10 in 20 minutes; I didn’t see any news yet. Momentum was bullish, and it cleared last week’s high of 964.50The July high at 974.30 is the next rally objective.
Dec. Silver: It had its rally yesterday, so it’s not following gold today. It’s on a momentum sell short signal. Resistance is the July high of 1522.5, support is 1490 then 1483.
Dec. Copper: Downside breakout under 280 support in spite of a momentum buy signal.
Dec. Cocoa: It’s a momentum sell short day; Trade or Fade gave an NR4 breakout signal for today. Watch support at today’s low of 2816.
Oct. Sugar: A weak close after a new contract high yesterday was a bearish sign. Momentum is down to buy signal levels; watch support at the breakout level of 2333.
Dec. Coffee: I like the short side under 120.75; there’s trendline support at 118.40.
Dec. Cotton: Momentum buy day; it’s trying to consolidate at 5800 support. There’s trendline resistance at 59.56.
Oct Crude Oil: On a momentum buy day signal; it’s trading at Fibonacci retracement support of 67.72. July’s low was 67.42.
Nov. Soybeans: FC Stone had a bearish crop estimate report last night which weighed on prices. It’s a momentum buy day; support is the July low of 940-4.
Dec. Corn: Momentum buy day, support is the July low of 311-4.
This is the morning update to my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
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